Saturday, April 22, 2017

NAMAZU ON THE NEXT WAVE OF TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATION

Helios Ruehls, Inc. Presents: 
HELIOS RUEHLS SCIENCE REPORT NO.3

THE GREAT NAMAZU ON "THE SECOND INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION"




Greetings bipeds! 
 The world tomorrow will be dominated by the INTERNET OF THINGS a disruptive set of technologies that some think of as the Internet's second wave. This development could be summarized as things communicating and interacting with things. The "driver less car" is an example of this "internet of things", the car communicates with the road, GPS systems, and other cars. Your home will be monitoring your plumbing, climate control systems, phones, computers, home entertainment , and lighting , and security systems. At the heart of this development are a number of inventions. Artificial Intelligence (AI) will be the last of the transformational technologies to be perfected, other enabling technologies are already up and running. Among these are NEMS (Nano Electro-Mechanical Systems), MEMS (Micro Electro-Mechanical Systems), think of these as micro robotics. Robotics of course will also be a part of this "Second industrial revolution".  Goms (Graphene -Oxide Membranes ) are probably the first single cell thick human invention.  Right along with this evolving Internet of Things we see an emerging evolution towards non reductive manufacturing. 

 3-D Printing is the first example that comes to mind in terms of non reductive manufacturing.  Manufacturing in most instances today is a reductive process. Over simplifying a bit, we start with a pile of sheet metal, rods, beams, etc. and we cut away, file, buff to shape component parts then assemble the parts into a whole, be it a car or washing machine, camera, or kitchen utensil. When we are done a common element in nearly all traditional manufacturing processes is the slag heap, the pile of material that was cut, sanded, filed, away to shape the object of the manufacturing process. In 3-D printing the slag heap disappears. Plans and powdered materials are loaded into a computer program which guides an ink jet like process in 3 dimensions and shapes the desired object with no waste of materials. Not everything presently lends itself to this process but more and more objects of different sorts including large objects like small boats and objects with moving parts like simple guns have been 3-D printed. The 3-D printers are starting to find their way into plants which still use reductive processes. In these plants the 3 -D printer is being used for components within larger more complex manufactured objects like automobiles , that lend themselves to the 3-D printing processes available today. Every year the 3-D technology improves. In the labs however, even before the 3-D technology is perfected, scientists have their eyes focused on the next wave, molecular construction.

The Hohlraum 
 The humble and bowl like hohlraum has been around since at least the first atomic bombs as part of the detonation assembly. Recent lab experiments suggest other uses for this device specifically,...wait for it....creating matter out of light!. There is little that your 3,000 year old Catfish reporter is ever astounded by, but that got my attention. Somewhere in the parallel evolution of 3-D printing technology and molecular level manufacturing technology is waiting the "Replicator" of Star Trek fame. Helios Ruehls has among its future projects being explored an improved molecular tweezers. Note that's an improved molecular tweezers, the first such are already in use. Goms (Graphene-Oxide Membranes) are the first man made objects that are exactly one atom thick. The potential applications for these super thin membranes  seem almost limitless in applications from desalinization to medicine. 

Artificial Intelligence (AI) 
 Artificial Intelligence (AI) will link all of these technologies into coherent and complex applications. One of the first such technologies starting to emerge are the "COBOTS" or collaborative robots. These robotic applications are designed to work in close collaboration with human workers and learn from them. Such robots must have great sensory capability and delicate agility. In automotive manufacture today much of the robotics have to be sort of fenced off or other wise guarded for worker safety. Thanks to the capabilities imparted by the latest MEMS and NEMS applications robotic sensor capabilities including robotic vision are improving to the point that we can report that some "Cobots" are already in industrial settings. 
The next "industrial revolution" of the Internet of things, non reductive manufacture, high speed and "pulsed"/ "dense" communications and data transmission /exchange is already emerging (more on pulsed and dense communications / data transmission in a later report). The base enabling technologies most notably include : NEMS, MEMS, HOLARUMS, and GOMS. The early applications now moving into the economy are probably most visibly represented by vastly improved "smart phones", "smart house" systems, and "Cobots". 


So as your savvy catfish mentor I know what you are thinking right about now...."hey Namazu, how do I make an investment buck off this emerging second industrial revolution?" Well Bunkie, I wasn't worshiped as a demigod in Japan for thousands of years because I was stupid. I can give you some advice. Now that you know about the basic technologies driving the revolution the secret is to discover the emerging leaders, buy stock in them, hold it through a cycle I'll describe for you; then sell at a profit, one that doesn't represent speculation but a big increase to you and actual value to those you sell to. Nothing like having money that you won in a process that lets you sleep with a clear conscience.  So let's look at the opportunities and hazards of the technology acceptance curve


Artificial Intelligence (AI) is the technology that links NEMS, MEMS, HOLARUMS, and GOMS.  AI "is the "new electricity" and will affect every industry. Combined with NEMS , MEMS, Holarums, and GOMS it is the key enabling mechanism of the emerging transformational technologies. Transformational technologies have a tendency to literally wipe out entire industries and replace them with new processes and devices totally changing the job market in the process. As a new set of transformational technologies emerge they rarely enter the market place all together, though eventually they will fit together into a virtual revolution in technology. Innovators lead the introduction and eventual acceptance or rejection of transformational technologies, remember some potentially disruptive technologies are prematurely introduced, or superseded by more advanced technologies before reaching serious market acceptance.  We seriously doubt that the AI linked technologies, at least in terms of their components such as NEMS, MEMS, GOMS, etc. are going to flame out, but some of their early applications , some robotic inter-communicating products, will not survive the technology acceptance curve. This is why we always suggest checking the business fundamentals when investing in high tech stocks. No amount of innovation or exotic technology will save a poorly run company from eventually going under. Investment requires homework. Early adopters differ from the Innovators and must appear in the market if a new technology is to have a chance. Early adopters adopt an emerging technology to apply to a specific  opportunity that they understand. Early majority adopters are even more pragmatic than the Early adopters and dislike the risks associated with innovation, but don't want to lag behind technologically within their respective fields of endeavor. The key to successful investment in disruptive technologies is to spot the entrance into the field of the EARLY MAJORITY ADOPTERS.

If you can find a manufacturer, designer, or distributor of components in a disruptive technology that is just entering the Early Majority Adopters stage and it has good business fundamentals it is hard to go wrong. Many future disruptive technology leaders first appear on the market as closely and privately held corporations, years before their initial public offering (IPO) of common stock. It takes more than a knowledge of the components of an emerging and disruptive technology to pick a winner from the selection of IPOs that hit the market in any given month. You have to be up on the groupings of technologies, the early players, and their corporate fundamentals.

 Once you make a winning pick, these companies go through a stock value cycle as well. Usually there is a round of explosive growth, there are daily ups and downs but the long term is extreme growth. These often start as "penny stocks" and over a period of years grow to "blue chip status". Generally "blue chips" sell anywhere in excess of $100 per share to thousands per share and steadily return dividends to investors. The problem with buying "blue chips" after they become "blue chips" is that they cost a lot per share and those prices remain fairly steady. "Blue Chips" can be a great investment for storing money, may often beat inflation via their dividends, but no one makes a fortune investing in "Blue Chips". Spotting the emerging disruptive technologies that may have a 20 year run before being threatened by a new emerging disruptive technology requires study, patience, and a bit of luck, but these are the equities that can make an investor rich. We can't tell you yet with any certainty who the big winners will be in the AI linked new technologies that will soon constitute a "second industrial revolution". We may have some early suggestions for you soon as we continue to monitor this development. These won't be "sure bets", just well researched suggestions. Watch for future Helios Ruehls, Inc Science reports here on the American Admiralty Books Blog.


Namazu 



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