Thursday, July 11, 2013

7/11/2013 THE BEAR AND THE DRAGON

THE BEAR AND THE DRAGON REAL FRIENDS OR OCCASIONAL STRANGE BED FELLOWS?

Links checked 9/18/2015
Photos: Public Domain

THE RECENT SALE OF TWO SUBMARINES PLUS TRAINING PACKAGES TO VIETNAM AS PART OF A SIX BOAT CONTRACT SEEMS ODD. GIVEN THE BUILD UP OF VIETNAMESE NAVAL FORCES IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING CHINESE NAVAL AGGRESSION AGAINST THE VIETNAMESE EEZ AND ISLAND TERRITORIES AND RECENT EXPRESSIONS OF FRIENDSHIP BETWEEN RUSSIA AND CHINA ONE WOULD THINK THAT RUSSIA WOULD NOT AID THE NAVAL BUILD UP OF STATES DEFENDING AGAINST CHINESE TERRITORIAL AGGRESSION.  BUT STRANGER THINGS HAPPEN WE CONTINUE NAVAL SALES TO TAIWAN DESPITE THEIR SIDING WITH THE MAINLAND IN THE DISPUTE WITH JAPAN A FORMAL U.S. ALLY.

 KILO CL:ASS SUBMARINE ( U.S.Navy Photo)

 The recent news that two Kilo class submarines are on their way from Russia to Vietnam operated by well trained Vietnamese crews courtesy of Russia as the vanguard in an eventual order of six Kilos seems to illustrate our observation of last week. The dragon has no real friends and if it finally crosses the line and commits an outright act of war against Japan or the Philippines invoking our obligations in our defense treaties with either or both of those two nations it will be the PLAN against an allied multi national U.S. led naval force. We doubt even Taiwan which has so far been quietly pushing the Chinese mainland agenda will actually join in with the PLA but rather will try for armed enforced neutrality. 

 The allies will probably respect such neutrality, the Dragon will probably try to violate it and get a bloody nose for its efforts. All sides will probably try to limit the conflict to conventional naval weapons in and near the South and East China Seas, with the mainlands of all combatants at least at first held ill advisable for attack. Here's the crazy part, the big winner in such a dispute would have to be the United States since it is the debtor nation to China. The U.S. could immediately cut off debt service to China under such circumstances without damage to its global credit rating. The result of that move coupled with a de facto naval blockade of China caused by the warfare in the China Seas would crash the Chinese economy just as the U.S. is poised for an oil boom. 

 China's best interest is served by dropping the illegal demand for everyone else's offshore islands, and switching to leadership of a forum for the peaceful resolution of the few legitimate cross claims of sovereignty. This should  be followed by establishing a multinational off shore mineral leasing authority for the region that can provide reliable mineral leasing despite unresolved territorial and jurisdictional claims. China, if the dragon wants to remain competitive, and take advantage of its recent progress, it needs the oil of the China Seas to come on line as fast as possible regardless of how much it owns outright and how much is controlled by what could be friendly neighbors and close at hand suppliers. Instead the bullying continues and the oil production stays on hold, while Vietnam, the Philippines, and Japan build up their naval forces, India becomes more concerned, and the United States continues its pivot to the Pacific. The dragon is ignoring the clear path to continued prosperity and continuing on a path to certain disaster. 

 Our government may be led by idiots but they know that eventually they have to bow to public opinion. The government of China is also somewhat responsive to public opinion but plays too large a role in controlling and shaping it. Right now Chinese public opinion has been misinformed into supporting an idea that violates every related tenet of international maritime law. Disaster looms for China and this is not good for the rest of the world including the United States which stands to gain temporarily by China's fall from power. Orderly economic evolution is in the best interest of all concerned. Military muscle should not be an instrument of economic competition but the dragon is leaving a host of nations great and small little choice. Below is a Vietnamese English language account of the two new submarines and the six sub contract:

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