Wednesday, October 12, 2016


Sponsored by Helios Ruehls, Inc


Update 4/18/2017: Sometimes even your usually infallible catfish gets blindsided. After the Trump inauguration the usual post presidential bear market did not happen. Instead we had a bull market . However, momentary market fluctuations not with standing I stand by my observations below concerning aerospace stocks as "buy and hold investments". 

 As some of you know I've been working a second job with a company called Helios Ruehls, Inc. which specializes in research supporting transformative and disruptive high technology development. One of the things I've learned hanging out with the folks at Helios Ruehls is that in the early stages of any investigation into a potentially transformative or disruptive technology one must research the "state of the art" to help determine if additional investments in research will be productive. From researching the state of the art one quickly gets something of a picture of the state of the related industry and who the leaders are. Most of the work of Helios Ruehls, Inc. relates to optical physics and related technologies. A lot of optical physics is applicable in the aerospace realm.

  A "bi catch" of our research is often a look at companies in aerospace that aren't directly part of our research or highly likely to be part of our customer base any time soon. None the less we think some of our "bi-catch" looks like worth while investments so we thought we'd pass them along to our American Admiralty Readers just for the sake of building good will. Of course if you run out and buy these companies stock and lose your shirt you may not like the old catfish any more. Despite my much vaunted historical perspective and keen insights I'm not a stock broker. I don't charge for the information found here. I only suggest that investors interested in aerospace and transformative and high technology stocks take a look at these companies that we found recently in our "bi catch". If your own research confirms the probabilities that are suggested by our quick sorting of our research net contents, these bi-catch stocks might prove a good investment. But check everything out yourself, remember catfish advice may be worth what you pay for it....

AEROJET ROCKETDYNE, if there is such a thing as an "old line" company in aerospace, Aerojet is a close approximation. Under the name "GenCorp, Inc" this $1.34 billion company has been around since 1945 and has even deeper roots in General Tire and Rubber Co. In 1969 Aerojet participated in NASA's Moon Landing and has been working with NASA ever since. Aerojet Rocketdyne reported 2016 second quarter net sales of $408.4 million and net income of $5.9 Million, or $0.09 per share and enjoys a funded project backlog of approximately $2.3 billion. There will be companies seen as start ups now when NASA makes the leap to Mars, but AEROJET ROCKETDYNE will be there. This is a great start to any portfolio of aerospace stocks.

Aerojet was in on the action when NASA launched Apollo 11 and landed men on the moon for the first time in 1969. Their NYSE Stock exchange Symbol is AJRD. This year the stock has been trading between about $13.+ to $19.+ per share and mostly trades in the $17.+ range. The company has seen a down turn in its stock price since the year's high of $19.+ due to a failed rocket launch and other problems with its AJ26 rocket engine. As a catfish and former demigod with a 3,000 year perspective I doubt this company will stay down. The stock price may fall further between now and January as after a presidential election the entire market generally gets depressed a bit. Personally I think while its down is a good time to buy this old reliable player in the aerospace field. I see it as a buy and hold asset vice a big dividend payer, or a stock prone to a sudden and dramatic rise. I believe Aerojet Rocketdyne will be around for the Mars shot. If you are investing in aerospace it belongs in your portfolio as a buy and hold asset. 
On the opposite end of the spectrum in Aerospace upstart Space X looks like a player that will be in the game a long time, perhaps evolving over time into an "old line" player comparable in the future to Aerojet. This would be a highly speculative investment as the company is pretty much pre-revenue. But the start up continues to make tangible progress. In September 26, 2016 the company successfully fired its "Raptor" rocket engine touted as an "interplanetary transport engine". The company is operated by visionary engineer Elton Musk and is not publicly traded. However if you can find any of the private investment stock or the company goes public we pick Space X to be as likely present at the Mars shot as old line Aerojet Rocketdyne. As an almost infallible ancient catfish ex-demigod  I'd rate this a "speculative buy and hold" stock, if you can ever buy it.

The Boeing Company (BA) your catfish mentor rates as a buy and hold old line aerospace stock. The company reported strong earnings growth in 2015 of roughly +25%. In 2015 the stock surged +26% over 2014 outperforming the S&P 500 index. Since we anticipate a coming bear market to accompany the presidential election we actually expect this stock to fall with the rest of the market, but like Aerojet Rocketdyne we expect Boeing to be there when the Manned Mars mission takes off. After the post election Bear market we expect Boeing to resume its climb. Some time in the very near future is the time to buy this stock, watch for a price decline soon based on the general trend towards a post election Bear Market, or over all long over due market correction. Again your catfish mentor sees Boeing as a buy and hold portion of an aerospace portfolio. When you're three thousand years old, timing the market is not your thing. While I sometimes suggest highly speculative investments such as Space X ( if you could buy it), it is with an eye to up and coming buy and hold stocks, the increase in stock price for the up and coming companies is a bonus. Balance your risks, include some old line buy and hold stocks in any portfolio, investigate everything for yourself, look for sound financial fundamentals, and remember even free advice from your ancient infallible catfish pal may only be worth what you paid for it. Even stock advice from paid "expert sources" may not be worth what you paid for it. But enterprise will not go away no matter which of the current crop of idiots occupy the White House. Cash under the mattress, or even gold coins  may not beat inflation. Own part of the world's entrepreneurial spirit, own stocks.

 And watch us grow , I'll be back now and then with more ideas from our bi-catch here at Helios Ruehls, Inc. where we not only research transformative and disruptive technologies, we invest in them.

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