Monday, October 20, 2014


The End Game for ISIS?



Rahemtulla reported on Friday that sources in 

Saudi Arabia told him that ISIS was a doomed 


 The gist of the report by Karim Rahemtulla based on interviews with knowledgeable people in Iraq and Syria is that ISIS is a doomed organization basically because it threatens its original sponsors. The effect of ISIS on global oil prices appears to be the driver of their undoing in the opinion of the reporter.  Oil prices are falling as we write this but that will surely change in coming weeks if ISIS continues to make progress in its conquest of Iraq and towards its most immediate "ultimate target" Saudi Arabia. We agree with the assessment concerning the coming rise in oil prices if ISIS progress isn't curtailed soon. We also agree that Saudi Arabia is on the targeting list and is a high priority but we think the "ultimate" target of the ISIS is Rome. Saudi Arabia is a necessary precursor.    

 Saudi Arabia will be a tough nut to crack. It has an effective military and enjoys the protection of the United States. Nonetheless Saudi Arabia and Qatar are part of the reason behind the founding of ISIS. ISIS is benefiting from bootleg oil sales even as we write this , but ISIS was well funded before they controlled any oil of their own. The money that began ISIS came from private and quasi governmental sources in the region. The original goal of ISIS was the defeat of Assad in Syria. In the analysis of Mr. Rahemtulla that is now an "after thought" of the organization.  
 ISIS is all about the Islamic dream of the global Islamic dictatorship called the "Caliphate". To achieve the classic caliphate ideal ISIS must control Mecca and Medina. Both are in the hands of Saudi Arabia. 1.3 billion people follow some form of Islam. About 850 million follow a heavily Whabi influenced variety in all of its blood lusting, intolerant, ambition. Many of these "militants" are not happy with the Saudi dominance of the religion, no more so than the 125 million or so who are moving in the diametric opposite direction towards a "reformed" type of Islam that is more tolerant of others and endorses separation of Mosque and state and are willing to do without strict Sharia Law, especially death for apostasy, teaching that those who leave Islam will be judged by Allah not man. Saudi Arabia and Qatar, the founding funders of ISIS are now in the cross hairs.
 According to the the powerful local people that Mr. Rahemtulla interviewed "The resources in Saudi Arabia are precious enough to go to great lengths to protect, even if that means bombing those who share the same faith and criticizing the countries in the region, like Qatar, that have funded radical groups." So now Qatar and Saudi Arabia are willing to form coalitions with the United States and NATO to put their bastard step child to a bad end. Of course, like last time, both nations will require that our troops leave their bibles and beer at home. We don't doubt the accuracy of Mr.Rahemtulla's reporting.  The resources in Saudi Arabia are indeed precious enough to go to great lengths to protect.  However, we don't buy into the prediction that ISIS is going down fast or certainly. Saudi Arabia and Qatar don't deserve the protection of U.S. lives or treasure. The U.S. however and the NATO nations can't afford for these two nations to fall into even more radical Islamofascists hands. The fall of these two detestable states will have too much of a negative effect on Western economies and will set ISIS on to its real "ultimate goal" the conquest of Rome ( in their 14th century minds to then be followed by global dominion). In our opinion our options have to remain open for a while and we must have plans a, b, and c in place.
 First we must continue and expand the bombing. What is in our own self interest is to knock out carefully selected production and transport facilities within the captured oil fields. Our goal is to disrupt ISIS oil revenues while leaving the oil fields in a condition suitable for rapid restoration once ISIS is exterminated. This means that civilian petroleum industry engineers should be added to the aviation intelligence analysis and targeting teams. 
Second we must continue to support the Kurds on the ground with strategic and tactical air cover including close air support in the form of Apache helicopters. We should provide air traffic "controllers" on the ground to work with Kurdish forces. We should also be training the Kurds in both Apache helicopter operations and air traffic control/strike calling and provide them with some Apaches when they are ready. We should ignore all calls to not arm the Kurds from what's left of Iraq, and Turkey; which has refused to protect them or cooperate as a NATO member should, and anyone else with a problem with an independent Kurdish state. Iraqi is a failed state and all of our blood and treasure did not cure the fatal riff between Shiite and Sunni. It is inevitable that Iraqi will emerge as two states less the Kurds. The Kurds have an a "reformed" Islamic society the two most visible elements of that are their treatment of women within their society, many of whom are now combat experienced veterans and not likely to accept any backward steps, and their protection of Christians and other non Muslims among them. Despite the bitterly uncertain conditions that they have been forced to live under they have formed a fairly successful capitalists economy. 
 Third we must wake up and realize that more than half the population of Turkey including many important government officials are among that global population of 850,000,000 "militants", Turkey is proven by its recent actions and pronouncements to be an unreliable member of NATO. While we wait to see if Turkey undergoes a societal about face NATO should reinforce the Greek border.
 Fourth: If Saudi Arabia, Qatar et al want this monster slayed let them provide the bulk of "boots on the ground", keep the U.S. and NATO contributions down to special forces, perhaps some armour. Should Saudi Arabia, Qatar, et al fall, then we should treat ISIS like we did the NAZIs in WW II. They will be coming after us at that point with troops , armoured divisions, artillery, and air power. Nothing inside their territory should be sacrosanct, their choice should be unconditional surrender or total destruction, even if 850 million must perish. Pakistan may be foolish enough to try and create a second front by starting the long anticipated  "Siege of India". At so much as the threat of use of their nuclear weapons Pakistan should be turned into a glow in the dark parking lot, same for Iran if they join in either the Siege of India or the battle in the Arabian desert. 
 Fifth: China and Russia have much to fear from the Islamofascists. Russia could be a Muslim majority state by the end of this century.  Both are highly unlikely to directly join the Jihad but are certain to make mischief while we are engaged with the Islamofascists. All Western Nations, Japan, and the Philippines should be engaged in a constant steady build up of conventional military forces, especially naval forces starting now. The constant reduction in defenses noticeable throughout the West in recent decades must be reversed.  

 Finally: We are in far more danger now than at any time since Pearl Harbor. Unlike the Cold War we face an enemy who is not influenced by common sense or things like "mutual assured destruction".  We must begin preparing for a hard fought victory. We also must get over our aversion to interference in "religious" beliefs when they cause wars and civil strife. We did not hesitate to require the emperor of Japan to renounce his claim to divinity after WWII. If half the Islamic world forces us into a major war we should not hesitate to require every Imam to sign off on a reform package that repudiates the concept of the caliphate, provides for real equality of women, eliminates demands for Sharia law, reforms Sharia law to eliminate all forms of punishment considered cruel or unusual by civilized states. Our occupation forces should regidly enforce these reforms banning the Burka, supporting and protecting schools for women, etc. Anyone under the occupation who commits an "honor killing" or kills someone for apostacy whould be publicly hanged by occupation military police. We defeated the Nazis and Imperial Japan and reformed both nations into responsible states. Germany and Japan had military industrial complexes at the time.  The Islamic states produce very little besides oil and mayhem. They have to buy weapons on the global market. They are not a naval power. They will simply run out of "bullets" long before we do. Is Mr.  Rahemtulla right? Well in the long run probably, the ISIS is going down, but we don't think the combined resolve of Saudi Arabia and Quatar assures it. 

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