YODA WHERE ARE YOU?

AT FIRST GLANCE REPORTS OF A NEW "ALIEN EARTH STUDY" SUGGESTS OUR ESTIMATE OF THE CHANCES OF INTELLIGENT LIFE IN THE UNIVERSE WAS A GROSS UNDER ESTIMATE.  WE DISAGREE. 

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SPACE AS AN OCEAN

                              

LESSONS FROM THE AGE OF EUROPEAN MARINE EXPLORATION FOR THE SPACE AGE.

 From the Book "PROTOCOLS" (c) 2012 by American Admiralty Books

SPACE AS AN OCEAN

                            

LESSONS FROM THE AGE OF EUROPEAN MARINE EXPLORATION FOR THE SPACE AGE.

YODA WHERE ARE YOU

    What is the real likelihood that we'll meet intelligent life out there?

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Editor's Note: We first published this essay as part of a serial E-book about a year ago. The entire book may be read in the "MARITIME LITERATURE SECTION" just scroll down past the book reviews. Recently the Huff Post Science Section published an article titled " 'ALIEN  EARTH' STUDY SUGGESTS MILKY WAY GALAXY HOLDS 45 BILLION EARTH LIKE PLANETS".  When we published the essay below our definition of "Earth Like" was quite different from the author of the above referenced article, Mike Wall who apparently first posted it on Space.com . 

  The planets the study refers to as "Earth Like" are simply somewhat near earth sized, with orbits around their sun that are roughly similar to Earth's. The study doesn't reveal anything about these planets rotation about their own axis or changing pole orientation which cause the day night and seasonal aspects of our own climate, nor do these studies indicate that any of these planets even have atmospheres. Most of these "new planets" are "estimated" planets meaning that they haven't actually been sighted but are estimated to exist based on a sampling of similar stars studied that had such planets. These "new earth like" planets are products of statistical analysis and subject to all of the errors inherent in statistical projection using small samples. 

 These "new" planets are not revolving around yellow suns like our own but around "Red Dwarf" stars with surface temperatures roughly in the 2,000 degree Fahrenheit range cooler than our sun. Obviously, there will be some differences in types of radiation coming off a red dwarf as well as the radiant heat difference. There is no mention of the presence of moons or large outer "guard planets" as exist in our solar system to reduce the frequency of impacts with meteors and comets, there can't be, these "new planets" are not observed but products of statistical analysis. Finally as we observed in our original analysis we exist on an outer radial arm of our spiral shaped galaxy, a uniquely comparatively tranquil place in the galaxy in terms of meteors, comets, asteroids, and other naturally occurring space objects that can and do impact planets. By contrast the inner parts of the galaxy are a much more violent place. 

 Even if evolution had more time there as the report suggests, it is the time between massively destructive events that count. One of these objects whacked the dinosaurs which gave mammals a shot at reaching the apex of the biomass, but we had enough time between celestial body bombardments to evolve. For that to happen in the center of the galaxy the "earth like planet", and by that we mean a lot more than just roughly size and orbit distance from its star; would have be positioned in a unique solar system with an extraordinary collection of "outer guard planets". When we published our estimate of the chances of another space traveling civilization in our galaxy we based it on a much closer definition of "Earth Like". We don't think this latest study and statistical projection change our estimate of the chances of industrial and space-faring civilizations at all.  Though subject to all of the potential error inherent in small sample statistical analysis, the study does suggest that the probability of at least microscopic life is higher than previous estimates and possibly not confined to planets circling yellow suns at the thought to be, appropriate distance.  

 A link to this report on the latest estimate of "Earth Like" planets in our galaxy is posted below, just remember "Earth Like" has different meanings in different contexts. In this latest study it refers only to relative mass, composition, and distance from the star orbited. Below the link is a reprint of our original posting, and below the reprint of our original posting are extracts from this latest study with comments from the author of our posting.  

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/02/06/alien-earth-milky-way-galaxy-earth-like-planets_n_2631063.html


YODA WHERE ARE YOU

    What is the real likelihood that we'll meet intelligent life out there?

  When European man first set out on the great voyages of exploration he expected to reach civilizations. He found both civilized and primitive tribal societies in abundance. Indeed the whole Earth while separated by what seemed like uncross-able seas, was in fact thickly peopled with diverse societies. Yet sea faring European man also found that much of the Earth was only thinly populated, in some cases so thinly as to be considered uninhabited. What are we likely to find in space?

 Lets look at some probabilities in light of what some serious students of probability have said, based on the latest available information.  For the purpose of simplicity, and keeping the discussion focused on the more immediate future, (the next couple of hundred years vice the next two thousand ) let's limit the discussion to our own galaxy. We shouldn't get beyond this area in the more or less immediate future. If there is going to be a first contact in the next two hundred years it will probably be with folks from our own galaxy.

 In our galaxy which we call the "Milky Way". astrophysicist now estimate that we have about 135 billion stars.  Presently most theories of stellar formation suggest that planetary systems around stars are common, perhaps the norm. We have certainly been discovering a lot of these planets of late now that we have a better idea of how to detect them from Earth or orbital observatories. Some of these planets have been found in constellations that sailors have navigated by for centuries. So lets follow the line of reasoning of Carl Sagan and some of the numbers provided by Isaac Asimov and Stephen H. Doyle and call the number of planetary systems something just a little shy of 135 billion. Lets assume that each of these planetary systems contains 6 to 12 planets. That gives us "billions and billions" (Carl Sagan) in fact , about a trillion "worlds" in the Milky Way. Now of these somewhat less than a trillion "worlds" some are circling stars much larger, smaller, colder, or hotter than ours. Some are circling twin stars and receiving radiations of sorts that we can only begin to imagine. Some have rotations that are too slow to regulate temperature decently for life, some are too near their stars, some too far. In short the vast majority aren't very Earth like. But near a trillion "worlds" is a lot of "worlds".So the law of probability makes it highly likely that some are indeed Earth like.

 Stephen H. Dole and Issac Asmimov applied probability reasoning to the question in PLANETS FOR MAN (Random House 1964).  and arrived at an estimate of as many as 640 million Earth like planets , at least in terms of having approximate mass, temperatures, orbit/rotation, chemistry and a sun like star to rotate about at approximate earth like orbital distance. This boils down to only one star out of every 210 has anything even similar to an Earth like planet. Only one planet out of every 4,000 is estimated to be Earth like. Now assuming 640 million Earth like, life generating planets in our galaxy, what does probability theory say about intelligent space faring life being out there? Asimov looked beyond Sagan's cataloging of "billions and billions" of "worlds" to try to estimate the actual probability of some space faring civilizations in our galaxy. Some of his reasoning can be found in
THE PLANET THAT WASN'T.(Double day and Company 1976).  Let's follow some of Sagan's, Asimov's and Dole's math here.

 As Asimov observed , on Earth life took about three billion years to evolve to its present state . Civilization has existed for about 10,000 years. So the ratio of uncivilized years to civilized is 300,000 to 1. So if we consider Earth to be about average, and consider that life started in different times in different places it should be safe to estimate that civilization exists on 1 out of every 300,000 of these Earth like Worlds at best. According to Carl Sagan' like line of reasoning that would give us an estimated 2, 150 civilizations in our galaxy ranging in technological development from pre-Roman like to far beyond modern day America. (Notice I wrote according to the Sagan line, Asimov injects some new considerations later on.)  Now looking at industrial civilization we see Earth has had one for about 200 plus years out of 2,000 years of well documented civilized life. So of our galaxy's estimated 2,150 civilizations, a likely ratio of non or pre-industrial societies to industrial societies would be 50 to 1. That leaves us with an estimated 43 probable industrial worlds out there. Not all of them will be space faring yet. So lets estimate the space farers at 21 societies, figuring ourselves to be the median.


 OK, so is it probable that 21 societies in our galaxy are capable of some type of space travel? It's possible, but hardly probable based on our current knowledge. Asimov's biggest dampener on Sagan's estimate is the fact most of these planets on which we based all of the above calculations on are located in the circular portion of our spiral shaped galaxy while we are located on an outer spiral arm. The circular portion is very violent in terms of meteors, asteroids, comets and similar things hitting the planets there. The closer to the middle of the galaxy the more violent the neighborhood. Evolution needs extensive time between cosmic bombardments to evolve intelligent life. So if we ignored this basic fact in calculating a probable 21 space-faring societies in our galaxy, our estimate is wildly optimistic. Considering the facts as we think we know them today, the fact that we are here is astounding.  But then the galaxy is a really big place and we truly don't know all of the facts

The Milky way our home galaxy as it would appear if viewed from  overhead

 side view as prepared by NASA /COBE
 
Author's notes on recent new study:

FROM: Alien Earth Study Suggests Milky Way Holds 4.5 Billion Earth Like Planets   by Mike Wall published in Space . Com  2/6/2012 and the Huff Post Science Section 2/7/2016   


"  Astronomers have calculated that 6 percent of the galaxy's 75 billion or so red dwarfs — stars smaller and dimmer than the Earth's own sun — probably host habitable, roughly Earth-size planets. That works out to at least 4.5 billion such "alien Earths," the closest of which might be found a mere dozen light-years away, researchers said."   

AAB Note: This is a study of Red Dwarfs which are significantly different from our own sun, to start with their surface is thousands of degrees cooler. "Earth sized" is a long way from being "Earth like". We think it takes a leap of logic to assume similar sized planets circling very different types of stars in an optimum orbital zone are "alien earths".

"In the new study, Dressing and her colleagues re-analyzed the red dwarfs in Kepler's field of view and found that nearly all are smaller and cooler than previously thought.

This new information bears strongly on the search for Earth-like alien planets, since roughly 75 percent of the galaxy's 100 billion or so stars are red dwarfs."

AAB Note: Red Dwarfs are about 2,000  to 5,000 degrees F cooler on their surface than our yellow sun, this would indicate that planets orbiting such a star in the zone that Venus, earth, and Mars circle our sun would on average be cooler, the inhabitable zone might be closer in than we presently think. We don't know what types of solar radiation planets orbiting Red Dwarfs receive compared to the out put of our own yellow sun.

" The researchers determined that 95 Kepler exoplanet candidates orbit red dwarfs. Using this information and their newly calculated stellar (and planetary) profiles, the team calculated that about 60 percent of red dwarfs likely host worlds smaller than Neptune.

Dressing and her colleagues then determined that Kepler has spotted three roughly Earth-size exoplanet candidates in the habitable zones of their parent red dwarfs.

One of these worlds is Kepler Object of Interest (KOI) 1422.02. This candidate's newly calculated size is 90 percent that of Earth, and it circles its star every 20 days. If the planet (and these characteristics) are confirmed, KOI 1422.02 may be the first "alien Earth" ever discovered."

AAB Note: We have no doubt that (KOI) 1422.02 is roughly earth sized, or orbits its star every 20 days in the speculative "best zone", but confirming those two facts don't prove an earth twin. How long is its day night cycle, does it have an atmosphere, what is the composition of the atmosphere, what is the average surface temperature? Is it in an outer spiral of the galaxy or nearer the base of a spiral or the outer rim of the circular section?, Are there outer "guard planets", how violent in terms of cosmic collision objects is its neighborhood. Remember Earth shares the "life zone" with Venus and Mars but is nothing like those planets. Finding a pair or a few characteristics of a planet held in common with Earth is grounds to focus attention on studying that planet. It is a far cry from the discovery of an "alien earth. 

                                 

ARE WE ALONE? As best as we can tell in terms of other space faring civilizations at the moment that is both possible and probable in terms of our home galaxy, not very probable when we consider all the other galaxies. Is non earth life out there? More probable than not at the microbe level its probably pretty wide spread; mammal like creatures we would only expect on earth like planets in the outer spiral arms and they would indeed be rare. As for non- space faring civilizations of intelligent beings any number between 43 and o would not surprise us.  However if indeed there was even one space faring civilization that was significantly ahead of us many less than perfect worlds in the so called Goldilocks zones may have been colonized. In which case all we would remind our future readers that we were only doing an exercise in statistical analysis. Strictly as an exercise in statistical analysis we think our reasoning is very solid.  Statistical analysis is a science, but as that famous merchant marine officer , Pilot Samuel Clemens (AKA "Mark Twain" said "...there are lies, damn lies, and statistics." 

                                                

           

NEWS FLASH; THE ISLAMIC COURT OF SUDAN STILL INTENDS TO HANG DR. MARIAM IBRAHIM FOR BEING A CHRISTIAN

SUDAN AUTHORITIES BUCKLE TO PRESSURE FROM HERETIC CLERICS AND ARE IN FACT NOT WORKING TO RELEASE DR. IBRAHIM.  SHE IS STILL IMPRISONED WITH HER TINY CHILDREN BOTH DUAL NATIONAL AMERICAN CITIZENS. THEY INTEND TO FLOG HER AND IF SHE SURVIVES THEY INTEND TO HANG HER. HER CRIME? SHE IS A CHRISTIAN.

  A Islamic Court in Sudan has sentenced the woman in this picture to flogging and death by hanging for being a Christian. Her husband is an American and her two children, both of whom have rights as American citizens, are imprisoned in her cell where she is shackled by her ankles to her bunk. She was arrested when she was eight months pregnant and gave birth in prison while wearing leg shackles. There is little public out cry in America over this. The State Department and the White House have yet to acknowledge much less assert the American citizenship of the Children, nor offer the visa she is entitled to as the wife of an American. We assert that with two American children held in a prison, to be forced to watch their mother flogged and hanged America has a right of military intervention to protect her own. The laws under which she is condemned can not be recognized internationally as anything but a crime against humanity and against the UN declared universal human rights. The prosecutor and the judge should both be put on trial for crimes against humanity. The U.S. press which has paid little attention to this doesn't seem to get this point. While Mariam may not be hanged for up to two years due to Islamic law concerning the execution of mothers of new borns, she is totally at the mercy of the prison medical staff for the scheduling of her flogging which could easily kill her. Her new born's life is in danger due to the unsanitary prison conditions. Her 20 month old son is also reported as constantly sick. These two tiny children are American citizens.

 THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA MUST ACT NOW! IT MUST ACT DECISIVELY. IT MUST INFLICT A TERRIBLE RETRIBUTION ON THESE BARBARIANS IF THEY  KILL ANY MEMBER OF THIS FAMILY. THE NATIONS NOW UNDER THE CONTROL OF THESE BARBARIANS MUST LEARN THAT THERE IS A PRICE FOR CRIMES AGAINST HUMANITY AND DIRECT COSTS FOR THE CRUEL MURDER OF AMERICANS REGARDLESS OF THE ROUTE TO CITIZENSHIP TAKEN. THE PRESIDENT MUST ACKNOWLEDGE THE CITIZENSHIP OF THESE CHILDREN AND DEMAND THEIR RELEASE WITH THEIR MOTHER. THE PRESIDENT MUST ASSERT THE LIGITIMACY OF MIRIAM'S CHRISTIAN MARRIAGE AND EXTEND CITIZENSHIP TO HER. HE MUST THEN PROCEED AS IF THERE WAS NO MATTER OF SUDANESE SOVEREIGNTY INVOLVED WHAT SO EVER. WHEN THE COURTS OF SUDAN BEGAN PASSING DEATH SENTENCES ON CHRISTIANS SIMPLY FOR BEING CHRISTIAN NO MATTER HOW THEY COUCH THEIR TERMS THEY BECAME INTERNATIONAL CRIMINALS AND LOST ALL LEGITIMACY. WHEN THEY EXTENDED SUCH TREATMENT TO AN AMERICAN FAMILY THAT SHOULD BE THE SIGNAL TO BRING THIS REGIME TO AN END. 

 The Islamic court's plan for the children after they kill their mother is to permanently revoke the custody of their American Christian father and make them wards of the state to be raised as Muslims. Khartoum can no longer be considered a civilized state.  


"Mariam Yahia Ibrahim Ishag is a 27-year-old Sudanese woman, sentenced to death because of her Christian faith. Ishag was arrested during her second pregnancy and gave birth to a girl on May 27, 2014. The sentence will not be carried out until two years after the baby’s birth.^[1] Amid intense pressure from the international community, on May 31, 2014, Sudanese officials initially told the BBC she would shortly be freed from custody,^[2], this has since been officially denied.^[3] Ishag's husband also denies being told of her impending release, and said, "As far as I'm concerned I will wait for the appeal which my lawyer submitted and I hope that my wife will be released."^{[3] CLICK FOR FULL STORY}

THOUGHTS ON WHAT MARIAM MEANS

SIGN THE PETETION TO SAVE MARIAM

IS A MATH DEFICIENCY DELAYING INTERPLANETARY TRAVEL?

SPACE AS AN OCEAN  

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LESSONS FROM THE AGE OF EUROPEAN MARINE EXPLORATION FOR THE SPACE AGE.

 From the Book "PROTOCOLS" (c) 2012 by American Admiralty Books

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WAITING ON THE CALCULUS AND THE CARAVEL

  It has been over forty years since man first walked on the moon. Within thirty years of the Wright Brothers flight commercial air service for passengers and freight was readily available and growing into a major industry. Why then the apparent slowing of progress in manned exploration of space and the development of a commercial space transport industry? If we more closely examine aviation history we find little reason for concern. More over, if  we think of space as an ocean there is ample precedent and logic to what appears to be an otherwise unnecessarily long pause in developments relative to manned interplanetary flight.

 First lets look at heavier than air aviation history. Here is a Chronology of some of the main events.

1. The first heavier than air flying machines to lift off the surface of the earth were kites invented by the Chinese between 400 and 300 B.C.. These and the flight of birds would be the subject of study  for thousands of years before the study of aerodynamics would be formalized. The study of heavier than air flight would be studied from the flight of the Chinese kites continuously but in an uncoordinated fashion throughout this time frame. Study would be hampered by a lack of the printing press, difficult communications, in short, the inability to build a recoverable and organized body of literature on the subject that succeeding generations could build on.

2. Leonardo da Vinci scientifically studied the flight of birds and sketched various flying machines. This was the start of a recognized body of literature on flight. This would occur about 1500 A.D. or about 1800 to 1900 years  after the lift off of the first kites.

3. Most heavier than air manned flight experiments after daVinci's were also man powered. In 1680 Italian mathematician Giavonni Borelli proved that human muscles were too weak to support powered flight. (At least with the technology and materials of the day. Recently there have been several human powered flights using specially geared bicycle mechanisms to drive a propeller on super light weight aircraft with very low stall speeds and giant wing span to fuselage ratios) .

4. British inventor sir George Cayley built and flew model gliders and organized the science of aerodynamics in 1804. His work was most useful to the Wright Brothers.

5. German, Otto Lilienthal devised a system to measure lift produced by experimental wings and made the first successful manned glider flights in 1891 through 1896. His work was also most useful to the wright Brothers.

5. In 1903 Orville and Wilbur Wright , made the first heavier than air powered flight. This would be about 400 years after da Vinci's formal studies and 99 years after the formal organization of aerodynamics into a recognizable science. sixty six years later , Neil Armstrong walked on the moon.

 The likely progress of any science or technological development in the age of the Internet is bound to be much faster than the 1800 year gap between kites and da Vinci's drawings. Still, we should not be surprised to wait 400 years or more for the kind of game changing, break through technological development that the wright flyer or space shuttle represent.

Model of a Wright Flyer at the Smithsonian  Air and Space Museum

Link to a YouTube video of a filmed early Wright Brothers flight.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=fvwp&NR=1&v=T5o-fhBKf8Y

On the subject of going to mars:

 "If we really wanted to throw money at the problem, I think we could have gone ten years ago. It's no longer a question of technology. At this point , I think we need to focus on advances in propulsion technology......

     Capt. William Readdy, USNR , Commander of Shuttle Mission STS-79

                                           p. 55 of the USNI PROCEEDINGS, February 1997.

Capt. Readdy and like minded thinkers look to a propulsion break through because of the vast distances that must be covered to carry manned space flight and exploration beyond the moon. At present space craft speeds, Mars, a close in planet, is at least nine months away. Much too far for a quick raise the flag and grab a soil sample mission. When we go, we going to stay a while and eventually start a long term base. The Wright Brothers powered flight with a technology that was not invented with flight in mind, the internal combustion engine. Without the internal combustion engine they would have simply been glider builders. Capt. Readdy has simply noted that to conquer the great distances that must be traversed to continue manned exploration, of even our own solar system, much less the galaxy beyond, a new propulsion system is needed. It is this vast distance that makes the manned exploration of space so like our exploration of the seas. We may be awaiting a development from an unrelated technology before we can move forward beyond our nearest solar system neighbors. When we compare the history of ocean exploration to space exploration not only do we get a closer parallel than a comparison with aviation history, we get a much longer time frame.

 Maritime history, like  aviation history, is in fact thousands of years old. But unlike aviation, developments in marine technology did not suffer as much from a lack of authoritative literature. New technologies put to sea, were seen in diverse places and quickly copied and improved upon when real improvements appeared. Here the only cultural drag was the natural conservatism of sailors.  The eventual vehicle of global, ocean spanning voyages of exploration was the humble but wind and sea efficient caravel, eventually used by Columbus. It took about five thousand years for the caravel, a break through technology to evolve out of the longboat. The longboat evolved through many forms from the dugout canoe to the galley and trireme. But at its' most seaworthy point of development it was grossly inadequate for an Atlantic or Pacific crossing. Such crossings had to await a new propulsion system vastly improved over oars and a square sail. The needed new system came in the form of lanteen sail and a new hull form more sea kindly than the traditional Arabian dhow. The first ship type to fill the requirements was the Portuguese caravel. While the Space shuttle was called the "caravel of space" in its heyday by some writers, I believe it is but another longboat. Compared to other man to space lift systems it was relatively cheap and efficient., but it can not go the distance like the sturdy little caravel.

 I suggest that we are in a long pause in interplanetary exploration We have made the equivalent of short coastal voyages, near earth orbital missions routine. We have even made some interplanetary voyages to our nearest celestial neighbor, the moon. The knowledge gained allowed us to launch and operate unmanned probes to peer into much more distant parts of the universe and even visit other planets of our solar system. In so peering we have discerned that it is far more vast a place than ever before imagined and that planets, with atmospheres and water are probably more abundant than once thought only a few years ago. We are standing on the beach and looking out across that vast sea of outer space, with ever increasing knowledge of the far shore coming to us. But our longboats can't make the crossing. We await the development of the caravel.

And the space "Caravel" awaits the development of a new calculus for its' would be ship wrights. Before newton could give us the clock work like physics that guided our voyages to the moon, he first had to invent the calculus. Physics has progressed far beyond the Newtonian view of the universe, and even that of Einstein, the real possibility of faster than light travel is hinted at, but we lack the calculus to describe it. How much money do we put in pure mathematical research as opposed to applied physics? Yet without the calculus there would be little physics. Without the advanced calculus that we need there will be no "warp drive". Newton provided us with enough theoretical physics to get us to the moon and back. But Newton and  Einstein together can't take us where we need to go.  Newton's calculus runs out of steam around the fuzzy edges of Einstein's universe, the realm of "complexity" where we seem to be doing little more than collecting and describing elements of reality that have become observable but don't fit into the order described by Newton and Einstein.

SIR ISAAC NEWTON

Albert Einstein

The space "caravel" awaits the development of a new calculus. Before Newton could give us the clockwork like physics that guided our efforts to the moon and back he first had to create his calculus. Physics has progressed far beyond the Newtonian view of the universe to the far and fuzzy edges of the relative universe of Albert Einstein. At that far edge which some call "complexity" and others  "Chaos" the real possibility, indeed probability of faster than light travel is hinted at, but we lack the calculus to describe it. How much money do we put into pure mathematical research as opposed to applied physics? Yet without the calculus , there will be no applied physics at the far and fuzzy edges of relativity we need to be exploring now. Should we be surprised than at the long pause we seem to find ourselves in? The history of ocean exploration informs us that we should expect progress in "fits and starts".  The mere sixty six year span between Kitty Hawk and the Apollo flights was one of those "fits" , a period of furious and intense technological progress fueled by two hot and one "cold" global wars. It is instructive to note that Kitty Hawk came at the end of nearly a century of aeronautical study, experimentation, and publication. But now we encounter a vast distance to be crossed for which we have few tools or theories, a new start. New studies are required. We await the the calculus that will lead to the caravel. We don't know if we will have to wait fifteen, fifty, or even five hundred years. There was nearly a century between the organization of aerodynamics and powered flight. There was at least a century or two between the first appearance of the lanteen sail and the deployment of Portugal's caravels. So while we await the arrival of the calculus and then the caravel, what should be our next move? I suggest that we continue to improve the "longboat", our earth orbit operational and transport capability.

 Building a greatly improved space shuttle and perhaps some cheap "pick up truck" winged space vehicles and improved capsules  makes sense. Making access to near space cheaper and more routine

is important, if we are to build the ultimate "longboat" that may take us to Mars, or the "caravel" for travel beyond our solar system, we must build them in space. Since we can not in the foreseeable future make a quantum leap in speed, we must improve habitability for long voyages. This requires size, genuine seagoing ship type size, and that requires construction in space from components no larger than the old space shuttle, or sky lab. 

 Once we have big comfortable long boats assembled there is no reason not to push off for the far but visible shore, the Moon and Mars at the least. There is a lot that is of intense interest to visit within a one year journey from the earth at present rocket speeds.Our past history as seafarers tells us that intrepid and motivated crews can and will endure voyages of discovery lasting two years or more. So the next logical steps may be simply a better shuttle, a space station big enough to serve as space port and ship yard, and a humble little space tug to help pull all the component parts together.

No doubt we can go to Mars now if we will foot the bill. But we intend to go to stay, which is the only way to go that makes sense, we have a fleet to build. That means the next decade or more of manned space flight will continue to be in manned earth orbit with the probable exception of a Chinese version of an updated Apollo program. If we are spending the time building the very best "longboats" we can, this is not to be lamented. Nothing else can happen until we find the calculus that  lets us build the caravel.  After the "caravel" voyages will still be long and dangerous. We need experience in shipboard organization, and voyage management, and space construction. Once the "caravel" is available it would be handy to have a good idea where to go, so unmanned exploratory missions should continue. If the decades ahead in space look like the decades just past since the start of the shuttle and international space station programs , there is nothing wrong with this picture if we view space as an ocean and look at our history of global exploration by sea. Even if we find the calculus in our life times we won't be able to immediately build the "caravel". Meanwhile we need to get on with space-faring in our solar system in order to have the infrastructure and personnel ready to operate the caravel when it comes.

 Before the European powers launched out to accidentally discover the New World, they had already created navigation charts for as much of Europe and Africa as they could and mapped as much of Asia as possible given that they were mostly cut off from Asia by hostile forces between Europe and Asia. Such efforts are mundane, not as exciting as a Moon landing. But, we are doing what we need to do with the space station, and shuttle replacement, if we enlarge the concept of the station and build the space tug with the clear intent of building some really good longboats for use in our solar system.

Charting the globe wasn't done in a day. The New World wasn't discovered by a big government bureaucracy  The New World was accidentally discovered by a Merchant Marine Officer leading a three boat flotilla  on a small scale government sponsored expedition with a specific profit motive. This perhaps underscores the concerns voiced by some astronauts over the perceived slow development of commercial space transport. It will probably take more than a government only effort to both get us into the best "longboats" and eventually into the "Caravel".

 The closest thing in human history to what we are now experiencing in space is known as the "European  Recognizance", the pivotal point of which was the first voyage of Columbus in 1492. The "European Recognizance" didn't begin or end with Columbus, the era encompassed more than 500 years. The likelihood is that the "Human Recognizance of the Universe will follow the pattern of the European Recognizance by sea. We shouldn't be amazed or disheartened by the occasional forty year lull in electrifying events. Indeed space is an ocean, I think, and events are proceeding about like last time.                   

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PUSHING HR COST OFF THE BACK OF AMERICAN SEAMEN

2//2013 Merchant Marine Interest (periodic reoccurring)

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FIGHT MODERN IMPRESSMENT

SUE YOUR HEADHUNTER!

Last Summer (2012)  we carried the serial book BLOOD ON BROWN WATER which outlined and detailed the many abuses of occupational safety and health conditions that far too many Jones Act American seamen endure. The book which is still available to read in our MERCHANT MARINE INTEREST SECTION was part of the National Mariners Association's Second Request To Congress for corrective action. Of course the Congress hasn't passed a budget in three years much less addressed in a serious manner any of the rest of the nation's vital business. The reforms go unanswered. As illustrated above there never was a time in history when being a seaman was an easy occupation, though there have been times when a few seamen in particular sectors of the industry were well compensated for their endurance of the rigors of the sea. However, regardless of how fond the British were of impressment for naval service, and despite the use by American Merchant Marine companies of Shanghai techniques in crewing, all manner of involuntary servitude for seamen has been illegal in the United States since the foundation of the Republic.

The U.S.towing industry and the U.S. offshore service vessel industry are both suffering personnel shortages (despite the offshore support fleets down turn in activity due to the "tight sands oil discoveries which drove down the price of a barrel of oil) . Instead of offering better compensation, better scheduling, safer work environments to compete for the available labor, and attract new entrants the industry has turned to "head hunters", otherwise referred to as employment agencies. There is nothing wrong with this method of recruitment as long as the employer pays the employment agency fees. However in most cases they don't and because of hundreds of years of abusive employment practices in the crewing of ships  employee paid recruitment services are in most cases prohibited by law. By using prospective employee paid recruitment / screening services the employer transfers much of the cost of a human resources department directly to the perspective employee. It's a cheap shot anywhere but certain typical practices in the head hunting industry just happen to be illegal in vessel crewing operations. The big issue is the contract that must be signed between the seaman and the head hunter where in the seaman must pledge a certain portion of his wages for a specific period of time when employment is secured. U.S. Maritime law generally prohibits most employment related contracts for seamen where in any portion of wages are pledged in advance of receipt.

For many years the the National Mariner's Association (NMA) has argued that the current work boat industry crew recruitment practices involving typical "employment agencies" are illegal.

Unfortunately in the last three years few organizations or individuals short of the usual big money "Belt Way Bandits" have been able to get any serious attention out of a Congress bogged down over partisan squabbling. The Coast Guard eliminated their "shipping agents" who used to at least attend the signing of articles and discharge of merchant seamen on American flag international trading vessels a couple of decades ago. While the Coast Guard is in fact charged with enforcing some of what would be considered US." labor laws" they have largely refused to get involved in anything they consider a labor issue. A lawyer friend of the NMA has decided to tackle this issue. Dennis O'Bryan has filed suites over the issue and is taking on clients on a contingency fee basis ( no fee unless your case is won) mariners who have signed and paid under such contracts. He has provided the NMA with some reports of his progress and for many the outlook so far appears hopeful for recovery of fees. But the goal is an end to the abusive practice.

Parts of the work boat industry have a personnel shortage because of poor working conditions. A response of pushing recruitment cost onto the remaining workers is not a cure. The ultimate goal might eventually  be the kind of class action that would cost the abusing members of the industry more than the short term savings they receive by violating the law. We can pretty much forget the idea that the U.S. Coast Guard will ever come in and enforce the regulations, or that the Congress will put real teeth in the present penalties. So to America's Jones Act seamen we put it to you simply. It is up to you. If you have been made to sign a recruitment contract assigning a portion of your wages before receipt at any time in your career you can lend the strength of either your individual case to be filed for recovery and precedent value, or the weight of your case as part of some future class . You won't know what you can do until you explore your case with a legal professional. So we urge you call :1-800-627-9267 today. Its a free call and you will incur no legal fees unless your case is taken and won. If there are enough cases filed and won the abuse may stop well before the last case is settled. But rest assured that as far as the NMA has been able to observe there is no enforcement except through the courts today. In the interest of full disclosure we want you to know that Mr. O'Bryan is not a paid advertiser of this publication. However some of our staff are licensed Merchant Marine Officers and dues paying active members of the NMA. (Note the NMA has been inactivated for about two years now (2019)  

1-800-627-9267 Lend Your Personal Experience To The Cause Of Transferring the Personnel Office Costs Back To The Ship Owner. We have checked the above number as of MArch 20, 2019 and the firm is still accepting calls and will still consider such cases. 

A WORD FROM OUR ADMIRALTY LAW EDITOR

IT'S BEEN A WHILE SINCE UPDATES OF THE AMERICAN ADMIRALTY BUREAU'S COMMENTATORS HAVE APPEARED IN THE AUTHORITATIVE LITERATURE SECTION

6/23/2016: As mentioned earlier in June Amazon ceased doing business with Louisiana corporations when the Democratic governor pushed through an internet sales tax. There are no revenues at all supporting this blog at this time. None the less the effort at updating the American Admiralty Bureau publications continues, slower than ever, but it continues.
1/8/2015 Editor's note: As mentioned back in October revenues through our Amazon Portal have been down and staff had to be reduced. Consequently the slow progress in bringing all of the American Admiralty Bureau's Commentator's on line continues, Its slow , but it does continue.

 JUSTICE BRANDEIS SAYS:
Not familiar with the story of how we got a dead guy to work for us? Check it out here: http://americanadmiraltybooks.blogspot.com/2014/01/a-word-from-our-new-admiralty-law.html  

 You may not have noticed much progress in the AUTHORITATIVE LITERATURE SECTION since we completed posting the updated edition of the American Admiralty Bureau's COMMENTATOR VOL. 3 "MATTERS MARINE". Volume 3 has been completed and posted. We are in fact working on VOLUMES 4 and 5 but this time the work is being done off site. Once completed, these works will be linked just below the end of Volume 3 which may be read on line within the AUTHORITATIVE LITERATURE SECTION.  The next two volumes of the COMMENTATOR SERIES and such AMERICAN ADMIRALTY BUREAU GUIDES as we are able to update and republish will, in the future, be listed and linked in the Authoritative literature section and readable on line after an additional click on the link. We already have about five small volumes of reference works readable on line right in the authoritative section. The available room is limited and the scrolling is already a bit excessive. By moving the future volumes off site we will not have to limit the number of  authoritative and reference works that we can bring to you for free  on line reading based on available space. We do of course have limits based on copy right considerations and available funds for royalty considerations.

 AAB's VOLUME 4 is titled "A COMMON HIGHWAY" and is about navigability and navigation rights on the interior waters of the United States. Volume 5 is titled "WHAT IS A VESSEL?   WHO IS A SEAMAN Comments on the Proofs of Vessel Status and Seaman Status After OCEAN RANGER". 

 All of the original works of the American Admiralty Bureau are available in print on demand soft cover at very reasonable prices from MARINE EDUCATION TEXT BOOKS. We will alert you on line should the updated versions appearing here become available as print on demand books.


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SWIMMING DRAGON LAWYERS?

HOW FAR WILL THE DRAGON'S LAWYERS SWIM? HOW  DEEP WILL THEY DIVE INTO THE MURKY WATERS OF INTERNATIONAL LAW THAT THE PHILIPPINES ARE LEADING THEM INTO?

  The Dragon (China) has long been harassing its neighbors to surrender their ocean exclusive economic zones (EEZs)  to the swimming reptile. China uses its Coast Guard as the point man in this exercise in intimidation that attempts to tip toe around international law. The Philippines has its issues over EEZs with other neighbors near their southern, and south eastern boundaries and each has some relevant points in international law. China has some relevant points in some of its dispute with Vietnam. But China's claims on the Spratly Islands especially within 200 miles of the Philippines are groundless in international law. In this game of intimidation all sides have a lot to lose if things degenerate into a shooting war as together these nations form their own most important trading block, and a serious trading block in global terms. Generally shooting has been avoided and the military posturing, harassment, and brinkmanship has stopped well short of Gun fire with a few notable exceptions. Occasionally the regional coat guards have have actually had a go at each other with water cannon. When the contest opened between the Dragon and the Philippines one Chinese general publicly stated that if the Philippine people and government simply considered the relative military strength of China compared to their own nation they would readily acquiesce to China's demands. The Philippine answer is visible at Ayungin Shoal where a hand full of marines have been in a stand off with the Chinese Coast Guard since 1999.   

 By offering constant proportional resistance for over nearly a decade and a half the Philippines while clearly militarily much smaller has pushed the dragon in to an undesirable position. The Philippines did not flinch when the Dragon applied economic pressure and instead turned to other trading partners most notably the United States and Japan to take up the slack when China curtailed tourist visits, stopped buying certain exports, and generally reduced trade with the Philippines. The lesson to other regional powers having similar difficulties with the Dragon has been to go outside the China led trading block. However no one in the region wants the trading block to cease. Regional prosperity for everyone including China depends on regional cooperation. But China's continuous thug state tactics at sea is putting the dragon in a Hobson's choice; they can keep insisting that they alone own and control the South China Sea and destroy their leadership in the regional trading block. Or they could agree to administration of the sea in conformance with the United Nations Law of the Sea Convention and the Association of South East Asian Nations agreements and resume regional leadership; or find themselves as the distrusted agent at the regional bargaining table where everyone else is trying to hedge their bets by currying other trading partners. 

 Over a year ago China tried to soften its image by filing a brief with a UN tribunal involving certain of its claims. Other regional nations filed counter briefs right away. The Philippines took their time and just recently filed a brief that amounts to a complaint against China. The Philippines has a strong case and China stands to be embarrassed and exposed as a law breaking thug. That's the short of it. We have links below for you legal beagles or simply fans of international law in which an ivy league legal mind examines and explains the relative arguments of both China and the Philippines. If you are seriously interested in what is happening out there in the China Seas we highly recommend the two articles below:

MAGNETIC ROCKS ASSESSING CHINA's LEGAL STRATEGY IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA PART 1

MAGNETIC ROCKS ASSESSING THE LEGAL STRATEGY OF THE PHILIPPINES IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA

                                           







http://nationalinterest.org/feature/magnetic-rocks-part-ii-assessing-the-philippines-legal-10493

http://nationalinterest.org/feature/magnetic-rocks-assessing-chinas-legal-strategy-the-south-10481

GREEN PEACE AGAIN IN THE NORTHERN SEAS

 Greenpeace Ship Arrives At Arctic Drill Site, Statoil Rig Within Sight 

 Photo: NOAA

Once again we bring news of Green Peace disturbing the peace by forcefully 

and unlawfully boarding an oil rig. Reuters has the story we provide a lead in and a link 

below. These tactics never work and for the price of operating these ships then legally 

defending the indefensible antics of the crews, Green Peace could launch a hell of an

oceanic environmental legal defense team. You don't want a drill ship at a particular 

place, just board it and shut it down or damage it. Yeah right, the owners just call the 

coast guard or maritime police authorities, they take away the Green Peace crew at 

public expense then prosecute them at public expense while the drilling contractors 

continue to drill away. Why hasn't it ever struck the Green Peacenicks that a well 

reasoned law suite engages the drilling interests and has to be defended out of their 

their pockets. These show boat tactics simply endanger people and the sea and 

transfer costs of the minor annoyance to the public. You want to target oil 

companies, sue oil companies when they file for their drilling permits in sensitive

areas. Its safer, less hazardous to human life and the environment, forces corporate oil

interests to pay legal fees, slows drilling progress, and preserves the public purse.

But it ain't gonna happen. Green Peace is about egos and grandstanding. Litigating is 

work and not very glamorous. But it is effective. 

"OSLO, May 29 (Reuters) - A Greenpeace ship arrived on Thursday at the Arctic location where Norway's Statoil is planning to drill the world's most northerly oil well, ahead of the company's rig which was making its way to the site.

By late afternoon the rig was approaching the ship. "It is within sight, it is standing by," said Greenpeace's Truls Gulowsen.Earlier in the day, Norwegian police had removed seven Greenpeace protesters who had boarded the rig to stop it getting to the Barents Sea and Bear Island, an uninhabited wildlife sanctuary which is home to rare species, including polar bears" READ THE COMPLETE STORY AT REUTERS.

GREEN PEACE