THE
CHINESE CABBAGE PATCH STRATEGY:
A MIX OF EMERGING AND DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES CAN COUNTER THIS NAVAL LAND GRAB.
NAMAZU GIANT JAPANESE CATFISH AND FORMER DEMIGOD, NOW MARITIME ANALYST
EMERGING
TECHNOLOGIES MAY WORK BEST FOR NAVAL PURPOSES IN A BLEND:
The South and East China Seas as a Case Study
The Dragon (China) covets the outer islands, shoals, and exclusive economic zones of its neighbors in the South and East China Seas. Ignoring International Court decrees, the Dragon continues to put a strangle hold on its neighbors oceanic holdings. The strategy they use has been called "the Cabbage Patch Strategy". The title is derived from an article in a military journal by a People's Liberation Army (PLA) officer describing how the Dragon seizes its neighbor's maritime properties and mineral and fisheries rights. In a nut shell,the cabbage patch strategy involves first establishing a heavy Chinese Coast Guard presence around a desired island , shoal, or fishing ground. Once the Chinese Coast Guard has a persistent presence, then Chinese commercial fishermen, now many organized into a "naval militia" are brought into the area in force, and all others excluded. In many cases, light houses and other structures are eventually established. Most such structures are not necessary for navigation, but are simply built as a "proof of effective administration" to bolster territorial claims. ( See my earlier post LIGHT HOUSES AS OFFENSIVE WEAPONS) Such construction is very expensive and the Dragon has the advantage in economic power over her neighbors. My diabolically cleaver Catfish use of emerging technologies could move the economic advantage and speed of establishment of offshore "structures" like light houses into the hands of U.S. allies and away from the Dragon.
vs 
Picture of LB Myrtle from Bollinger shipyards, licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 2.5 License.
The
Advantages of our proposed blend of technologies: The blends of
technologies that we will examine in this case study would give our China
Seas allies an advantage in economy and speed of effort in defeating
a very specific maritime territorial expansion by an aggressive
neighbor. Military leaders want their emerging and disruptive
technologies to instantly provide capability, capacity, and
availability. To convince the military leader that a technological
mix is a game changer, it must be able to change the game, now. We
believe that emerging developments that we work with in optical
physics, and unique technologies that we routinely observe in the
U.S. offshore oil industry could be blended to generate that instant
game changer called “disruptive technology”. The particular
“disruptive technological blend” that we will describe could
turn the balance of power in the China Seas on its ear while
avoiding actual warfare.
Just as the Soviet Union
eventually conceded the Cold War because they couldn't afford it
anymore; the technological blend we will describe herein, could
completely destroy China's economic advantage over their maritime
neighbors in asserting “effective administration” in the more
remote areas of their respective EEZs. . At the moment only China
can afford the costs of the civil engineering to fill the South and
East China Seas with light houses, fishing support stations, and air
craft runways, and patrol craft bases advancing their international
legal claim of “effective administration” over what is otherwise
parts of the Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) of China's neighbors.
The adoption of our proposed “anti-cabbage patch “ application
of technologies in conjunction with the geographic advantage of the
rightful owners of the relevant EEZs would move China's position
from that of pushing for outright ownership of territory not its
own, by demonstrating “effective administration”, to cooperating
in joint licensing of offshore mineral exploration in contested
zones and peaceful negotiation with their neighbors over EEZ
boundaries. The primary risk and barrier to success in this
application is the simple fact that the best available technology
for one part of the mix is not out of the lab yet. Mitigating the
risk of untimely application due to unavailability of best
technology is the existence of “good enough” technology that can
yield the sought after advantage while the best available continues
development.
OUR
CASE STUDY: THE NAVAL WAR OF NERVES IN THE CHINA SEAS:
China
is engaged in a naval war of nerves with neighboring states around
the East and South China Seas over the control of several sets of
tiny, mostly uninhabited islands 1. The
islands are only considered valuable because the seas around them
are thought to be rich in oil and natural gas. *2,*3 China
claims virtually the entire East and South China Seas as Chinese
territorial waters, *4 the
United Nations Law of the Sea Convention (UNCLOS) doesn't recognize
closed seas, or generally territorial seas wider than 12 miles off
of the coast line of coastal states. *3 China
has little hope of winning the targeted area as their territorial
sea in any forum of international law,*9 but
their real goal may seem more attainable, an internationally
recognized vast expansion of their Exclusive Economic Zone under
UNCLOS at the expense of their neighbors. We believe
their strategy could be defeated by a particular application of
evolving and disruptive technologies.
At
a place called Ayungin Shoal the Chinese strategy for conquering the
islands they covet within their neighbor's rightful EEZ can be seen
at work. 4 (See A VISIT TO THE SPRATLY ISLANDS AND THE SIERRIA MADRE ) At
Ayungin Shoal a tiny contingent of Philippine Marines, sometimes as
few as eight, keep the flag of the Philippines flying from a
grounded wreck, still commissioned as a ship of the Philippine Navy
as Chinese “Coast Guard” vessels encircle the wreck and
discourage supply and support of the marines. The Marines are often
reduced to surviving by catching rain water and fish.*10 Chinese
commercial fishermen now organized into a “naval militia” work
the waters around the shoal while the Chinese “Coast Guard”
keeps Philippine fishermen out of the area.
 |
| Philippine Navy Photo: The SERRA MADRE as an air drop resupply target. |
General Zhang
Zhoazhong of the Peoples Liberation Army (PLA), “owners” of the
Peoples Liberation Army's Navy (PLAN) recently articulated the
Chinese Strategy for wrestling uninhabited islands and even
militarily occupied islands without direct weapons engagement. The
basic strategy is to surround such places with a dense fleet of
commercial, law enforcement, and military vessels “as
tight as leaves on a cabbage”.*5 Thus
we have come to call the Chinese strategy for their China Seas land
grab, “The Cabbage Patch Strategy”. General Zhoazhong
believes that despite the tenacity of the Philippine Marines at
Ayungin Shoal, eventually
any and all forces or populations on the islands coveted will be
starved out. With forces and populations eliminated China will
assert “effective administration” over the targeted islands, a
claim with some arguable legitimacy in International law.*5,
*7, *9 However, to date the Philippine Marines hold on.
THE
FLAW IN THE CABBAGE PATCH STRATEGY
The
big flaw in the cabbage patch strategy is that more kinetic energy
than that in a small atom bomb can be applied to the situation
without either side firing a shot. The source of the introduction of
kinetic energy into the situation is the typhoon. *12 (see DANGER AND OPPORTUNITY) The
advantage to the Philippines and other states in contest with China
over islands and shoals in their Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) is
geography. China is pursuing the legal argument of “effective
administration” over the Islands they have chosen to claim.*6
& *7 This is the same argument that the United
States once used to gain control over the “Guano Islands” in the
nineteenth century. The UN Charter bans permanent acquisition of
territory by conquest, and present International law recognizes
“effective settlement” as the most acceptable argument in
territorial disputes over outlying, sparsely settled, and remote
territories.*7 China's
approach is twofold. Using conventional and very expensive and slow
civil engineering technology, China is building manned facilities on
shoals and islands that were never suitable for human habitation.
From these, plus the efforts of their vastly expanded new “Coast
Guard” they conduct activities designed to bolster their claims of
“effective administration” and on their larger
developments even “effective settlement”.*7 Where
they are not building physical facilities they conduct their
“Cabbage Patch Strategy”. But certainly their cabbage fleets
must evacuate in the face of typhoons which can pretty
much be counted on to hit some part of the area every year. Even
some of their man made facilities may be wiped out in such
circumstances.
The
Chinese strategy has been working because their neighbors don't have
the economies to physically colonize the islands within their EEZs
that are traditionally uninhabitable.*8 The
Philippines and other neighbors beset by the Chinese Cabbage Fleet
have a geographical advantage as the typhoons generally pass over
them first as they come in from the Pacific and often leaving them
clear just as the Chinese mainland is being hit.*8 If
only they had the technology to race behind the typhoon and establish
man made and manned structures on their rocks and shoals before the
Chinese could return. What the Philippines and
other Chinese “First Island Chain” neighbors lack is a collection
of emerging and disruptive technologies that result in instant civil
engineering of durable but low cost off shore structures. We
submit that those technologies are evolving, yet available and
affordable.
EMERGING
TECHNOLOGIES CAN BE EMERGING FOR A LONG TIME, EMERGING AND DISRUPTIVE
TECHNOLOGIES CAN BE BLENDED AND COMBINED FOR NAVAL PURPOSES.
We
have a tendency when considering “emerging and disruptive
technologies” in a Naval or military milieu as coming from the far edges of
scientific research and applications. However, sometimes a
disruptive technology evolves from arts and crafts. It has
been hundreds of years since the profession of “Boat wright” now
considered a “skilled trade” or “craft” separated from the
“profession” of “naval architect”. Yet the very first
“elevating work boats” (“lift boats”) used in the coastal
Louisiana oil exploration and production industries originated in
the work shop of a “Boat wright”. *11 These
vessels capable of efficient self-propulsion are also capable of
“jacking up” a set of steel “legs” carried in wells at each
corner or two at the bow and one at the stern until the bottom of
their barge like hull has completely cleared the water's surface ,
by anywhere from four to 15 or more feet. The barge like hull can be
fitted out in a variety of ways and a variety of superstructures and
deck equipment may be fitted. The Louisiana “elevating work boat “
is an authentic COTS (commercial off the shelf) plug and play
technology platform. It has been used for well work over, shallow
exploratory drilling, well relief' and a variety of other functions
in the near coastal “oil patch” of the U.S. Gulf Coast for
decades. Yet elevating work boats in terms of other applications are
still an “emerging technology”. Used to help defeat China's
cabbage patch strategy, they can be part of a disruptive technology
package. Self-propelled elevating work boats should be the
base platform for the rest of the technology package that will
confound the Chinese cabbage patch strategy. The best way to
integrate the evolving technologies of the offshore “oil patch”
into the fleet for eventual or occasional tactical use by the Navy,
Coast Guard or Marine Corps we think, is by formation of a
Navy/Coast Guard “craft of opportunity unit. Such a unit
would study and catalogue developments of potential naval utility in
the U.S. workboat industry, monitor production lines, and track
markets for new and used equipment against the day the need arises.
It could be a very small unit led by a naval architect, with a
surface warfare specialists as XO, and manned by a few junior
officers with marine engineering and surface warfare training and
some senior deck , engineering, and ordinance rates. The units main
expenses would be a travel and operations budget and office spaces.
Acquisition funding for craft of opportunity would have to come from
higher command.
Some
of the package comes from “craftsman like innovations” by the
Gunner's mate rate in collaboration with Army artillery NCOs. In our
plan for fleet integration the Navy gunners would already be part of
the “craft of opportunity unit”, the army personnel on
collaborative loan for a single project. The last part of the
disruptive technology package comes from the far end of the
scientific spectrum, requiring an understanding of complexity theory
and the crossing of the“Newtonian/Euclidean line” *13 in
mathematics. This “best available technology” piece would
probably come to the craft of opportunity unit via DARPA, through
private labs such as Helios Ruehls, Inc.
The
basic strategy is to mark, equip, weaponize, and securely store a
number of these specially prepared elevating work boats ready to
deploy immediately after storm passage to shoals and islands targeted
or even pre storm patrolled by the Chinese within the normal EEZ of
the Philippines or other contesting state. Once on scene the boats
elevate, display the markings of the relevant nations coast guard and
signage such as “PRIMARY SEA COAST LIGHT NO--”. You now have a
properly marked light house that is also armed.
The
U.S. Coast Guard utilized standard marinized 50 cal. Machine guns
piggy backed with infantry mortars very successfully from its 82 ft.
patrol boats during the Vietnam conflict.*14 On
the relatively small deck of an elevating work boat a variety of
infantry anti-armor and normally shoulder mounted anti air weapons
could prove formidable. When the Chinese return after the storm
passes over their mainland they find an established and armed “light
house”, every bit as functional as the civil engineered structures
that they built over a long period of time and at great
expense. They will of course surround the new “light house” with
their armed coast guard vessels and make howls of protest and will
attempt to block all resupply efforts. The sudden appearance of the
new light houses would be the result of new combinations of
technologies. Like any vessel of comparable size, the elevating work
boats have serious water and fuel capacities, and the hull can store
a lot of groceries. However, there is a clear need for greater
sustainability. Enter the high tech end of this combination of
emerging and disruptive technologies.
THE
NEWTONIAN / ECULIDIAN LINE: *13
Some
of the technologies needed to greatly expand the on scene duration of
our “new light houses” are “high tech”, and available now,
some are on the other side of what we call the NEWTONIAN
/ ECULIDIAN LINE (NWL). The NWL is an idea we coined to
note the dividing line between certain areas of complexity
theory where we are starting to evolve the mathematics such
as Mandelbrot's Fractal Geometry, *15 and Chaos
Theory where for the most part we have no calculus or
geometries. Mandelbrot's Fractal Geometry, unknown before 1984, has
been the basis for research into the Fractal Lens.
(SEE: NAMAZU ANSWERS THE BIG QUESTIONS ,CHAOS AND COMPLEXITY)
The
Fractal lens*17 could
be the basis for very small but productive solar thermal electrical
generators, and desalinization units which could easily fit on a
standard elevating work boat. While the Fractal Lens driven
electrical generator and desalinization kits would be the ideal, less
efficient yet viable alternatives using inverse Fresnel lenses exists
as practical designs and existing parts. We need not wait until the
first “lab rat” fractal lens is manufactured and tested.
“Jacked
up” in light house mode the elevating work boats don't consume
much in the way of fuel. With virtually unlimited potable water and
electricity the “new light houses” should be able to outlast any
cabbage patrol of conventional vessels. That only leaves editable
stores. Durable foods are already commercially available and the
vessels come with ample below the main deck storage. But there is
the emerging agri-technology of hydroponics and good old container
gardening. Food stores could be supplemented with these technologies
and even a standard “light house” configuration could consist of
two elevating work boats one devoted solely to the emerging
technologies of factory farming
(as has already been proposed *18. ). (SEE: DEFEATING THE CHINESE CABBAGE PATCH STRATEGY IN THE SPRATLYS.....With Gardening?)
Our point here is that emerging and disruptive technologies can be
any mix of technologies above or below the NWL line. We can mix
analog, digital, optical physics, any other novel technologies or
crafts to get the overall military / law fare *16 effect
we seek. In
the example under examination we seek to turn the Chinese economic
advantage in building maritime civil works based on their economy
being stronger than their neighbors on its ear. The weak point of
the Chinese economic advantage is that it relies on architectural
technologies that require long construction periods, long distance
maritime and expensive logistic support, their interim tactic while
awaiting the funding and opportunity to “settle” all of the
economically strategic shoals and islets has been the “cabbage
patch fleets”. By using a mix of emerging and disruptive
technologies the Philippines and other regional states in
competition with China can establish “light houses”, aids to
navigation stations, fishing support centers, literally overnight,
right after Mother Nature removes the cabbage patch fleets with a
typhoon. They can also establish such features anywhere that is
unguarded by China.
THE
NAVAL USE OF EMERGING AND DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGIES CAN BE EVOLUTIONARY
AND INCREMENTAL
In
the case under examination the basic platform, the elevating workboat
is immediately available. In the case of our foreign assistance type
mission example, used U.S. work boats could prove sufficient and cost
effective. A key element, the fractal lens driven solar thermal
electrical generator exists in plans and drawings, but the key
element the fractal lens exists in theory only. An actual fractal
lens is still awaiting development and lab testing. However,
immediately useful performance can be had using solar thermal
electrical generators made with inverse Fresnel lenses and some
photovoltaic cells for lower electrical usages. Most any elevating
work boat can be outfitted with a helo deck and aerial replenishment
has been successful with the marines at Ayungin shoal. Perfection is
not necessary to get the counter cabbage patch strategy started. Some
of the emerging and disruptive technology on the far side of the NWL
line may still be in the lab. But it is likely to emerge before the
“good enough” combination of disruptive technological equipment
has exhausted its service life. In defeating an enemy using a
combination of naval power, and law fare for territorial expansion at
their neighbors expense timing is important. Some science on the far
side of the NWL line can't be rushed. Yet the desired disruption in
aggressor plans can often be had and maintained long enough for the
perfect solution to make it out of the lab and into application, by
holding the line with a disruptive combination of technologies that
are good enough, to cause the desired effect. In the words of Home
Depot's advertising gurus the key is this; NEVER
STOP IMPROVING.
Meanwhile I urge my readers to BACK THE FRACK
Footnotes:
*1
Council on Foreign Relations:
CHINA's MARITIME DISPUTES
contributions by Shen Dingli, Professor
of International Relations , Fudan University;
Elizabeth Economy, C.V. Starr senior Fellow
and Director for Asia Studies,CFR; Richard
Hass, President, CFR; Shelia
A. Smith, Senior Fellow for Japan studies,
CFR; Simon Tay,
Chairman, Singapore Institute of International Affairs. Available on
line @ www.cfr.org/asia-pacific/chinas-maritime-disputea/p3145#!/
*4 EnerGeoPolitics:
China Asserts Its Claim and Dominance Deep Into The Western Pacific,
July 1, 2013 available on line at
energeopolitics.com/2012/07/01/china-asserts-its-claim-and-dominance-deep-into-the-western
-pacific See also
A GAME OF SHARK AND
MINNOW, the New York Time Magazine, October 27, 2013 available
on line at : www.nytimes.com/newsgraphics/2013/27/south-china-sea/
See also: TERRITORIAL DISPUTES IN THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA as posted @ WIKIPEDIA, En.wikipedia.org/wiki/
Territorial_disputes_in _the South -China Sea.
*7 THE ENDURING
PRINCIPALS OF MARITIME INTERNATIONAL LAW: American Admiralty Books:
americanadmiralty.books2.blogspot.com/p/the-enduring-principals-of
maritime.html
*9 LAW
FARE OVER THE SPRATLEYS AND PARACELS, CHINA LOSES ROUND ONE ,
American Admiralty Books :
http://americanadmiraltybooks.blogspot.com/2015/11/law-fare-over-spratleys-and-paracels.html
*10 A
VISIT
TO THE SPRATLY ISLANDS AND THE SIERRIA MADRE, American Admiralty
Books:
http://americanadmiraltybooks.blogspot.com/2014/05/a-visit-to-spratly-islands-and-sierria.html
*13
Newtonian/Euclidean line”
A term
of art used in the Helios Ruehls corporation to describe the
emegrging mathematics used in the analysis of problems in complexity
and chaosthereotical areas.We have not found it anywhere in
authoritative literature but have found no other inclusive term for
tools like Mendelbrot's Fractal Geometry
-
18.
DEFEATING
THE CHINESE CABBAGE PATCH STRATEGY IN THE SPRATLYS.....With
Gardening? American Admiralty Books Blog Spot .com
http://americanadmiraltybooks.blogspot.com/2014/05/defeating-chinese-cabbage-patch.html
