Wednesday, November 7, 2012

11/7/12 NAMAZU F/L PART 2




 (Continuing from Part 1) 

 Three Dimensional Printing not only eliminates material waste in

 manufacturing but also eliminates all of the employment attached 
to the excess of materials required to manufacture in the 
conventional factory. This "replicator" technology allows for short 
production runs, custom work, and mid run changes; all things 
frequently needed today but often prohibitively expensive with a 
conventional "factory". The labor level in a replicator based plant is
 tiny even compared to the most "modern" conventional "factory"
that has maximized the advantages of robotic technology. 
File:ORDbot quantum.jpg
An ORDbot Quantum #D Printer

Now add modern management practices like" just in time delivery" 
where distributors no longer want to tie up capital in large stocks of
 product and the related storage and transport. Manufacturing is 
going to move closer to distributors around the world. China will 
no longer be the supplier of so many manufactured items to the 
global market. The United States won't either, but will come back 
into its own, making and distributing products sold in the United 
States.  China will prefer to get its oil and natural gas from the 
United States as the more reliable and efficient supplier compared 
to OPEC sources. Yet America won't be dependent on China for 
cash infusions to pay American debt and to make the clothing, 
furnishings, and appliances Americans use.

  The Dragon will continue to make trouble with its neighbors over 
various islands and areas in the China Sea in the hope that there are
 massive reserves of oil there and that the Dragon will control them.
 But confrontation will only serve to slow exploration and 
development. I like what Og calls China, "a thug state". I think at
 present he is correct, as long as I have known them (3,000 years) 
they have been big on central big government which usually 
degenerates into thuggery. I don't see them changing their ways in 
time to avoid a fall from world economic power. I frankly don't 
know if that also means regime change. Even giant catfish 
"demigods" have their crystal ball limits.

 So in the first three decades of the twenty first century these 

technological forces will unfold and dump in American laps 
another shot at an "American Century". Unfortunately even while 
this prosperity is unfolding other technological and political forces 
are shaping up that could put some dark clouds on the horizon. If 
America uses its newly recovered economic power to pay off its 
debt and reform its' government's free borrowing ways and deals 
pragmatically with the third wave of technological change coming, 
there is a chance that America could remain powerful and free 
leading the planet into a thousand year period of global prosperity 
and human freedom. For that to happen the present day model of 
politician and voter has to change dramatically, and all thought that
 makes a "may I?" bow to any from of "ism" must go. Sink or swim
 time, is rapidly heading toward America and the world. 

 The next wave of technology is actually moving along as we 
prepare to absorb the positive shock waves of becoming again the 
world's supplier of preference for petrochemical products, and 
regain our own manufacturing base. What's coming isn't a single 
game changing event of technology but a convergence of 
technologies. The replicator or "Three Dimensional Printing" is 
part of it in fact. But along with that are the combined effects of 
explosive growth in computational capacity and speed, not to 
mention new machine logic that can only be called artificial 
intelligence. These developments are converging with advances in 
miniaturization  and advances at the interface between genetic 
engineering and agriculture, and medicine. These advances all seem to be converging at about the mid century point when something amazing in an evolutionary sense 
will take place.

 On some future day near the mid century point the quantity and 
quality of artificial intelligence on the planet will exceed the total 
of human organic brain power. Through devices as small as surgical implanted micro chips , and special eye glasses people will be linked into this vast intelligence. Human/
cyber enhanced intelligence will dwarf every past advance in 
human intelligence over the last 200,000 thousand years. All of 
this will be happening at a time when medical advances will have 
extended the human life span potential to a seemingly indefinite 
point barring accidents. And not only will life be extended but 
relative youth as well..

 Unfortunately this rapidly approaching future that babies born 
today will have to deal with as adults will occur just as technology 
will make it possible to generate all of the food, fiber, finished 
products, and shelter that the entire human race will ever need to 
live a comfortable middle class life with only a tiny fraction of the 
work force actively employed.  There will be a need for human 
workers in certain service sectors, and human managers and 
administrators will be wanted in manufacturing, sales will still have 
a creative and personal component, but the bottom line is that most 
of the decently educated and even skilled people on Earth just 
won't be able to find gainful employment.

 There it is the sink or swim moment! Throughout civilized 
history we have rewarded the producers with the medium of 
exchange and they have spread it by purchasing needs and 
wants from other producers. In a world of potential high end 
consumers awash in goods that almost appear automatically , 
but only a very small number of people able to possess the 
medium of exchange through productive work; will the 
productive system collapse? Will it reduce itself to serve a 
insular economy of the elite workers who let the rest of the 
human race starve? Will the rest of the human race consent to
 starve quietly and peacefully? How do we deal with this 
unprecedented situation, a world of plenty in which the medium of exchange is either unavailable to ordinary people , or in the only alternative in which humanity 
survives and progresses is distributed by some system as yet 
unimaginable in which the medium of exchange is distributed 
in an as yet unimagined system that detaches money from one's 
contribution to the production of goods and services.  The old 
American adage attributed to Captain John Smith "He who
 doesn't work doesn't eat" just won't cut it in the world

 The oil and gas boom is coming and will drive a big recovery 
around the corner. We will have an unprecedented opportunity 
to retire our debt and reform our system back to a balanced 
budget. But with the two American political parties being 
based on two opposed coherent belief systems; conservatism 
and liberalism no matter which is in power neither ism offers 
any solution for what comes after the boom. One would 
"correct" the debt with excessively painful measures and one 
would just continue to spend the nation into the ground, putting off the day  when the bill comes due another generation down the line. 

 To set the stage for the coming new age of intelligence, 
longevity , and abundance and still preserve the greatest good 
for the greatest number, a pragmatism totally unhitched from 
the slavish mentality of the "isms" is desperately needed. Some
ideas of the right and left have places in this pragmatic approach. The right is correct is seeing the priority that should be attached to paying off the nation's debt. 
The left is correct in wanting to thicken the "safety net". But the
 American tax payer can't pay the bill for the left's social 
programs now. The federal government borrows every other 
dollar it spends. 

 There are large numbers of Americans who despise the 
Republican tendency to describe social security payments 
military and civil service retirements as "entitlements" lumping
 payments that they receive for work performed and systems 
financially contributed to in the same category as welfare 
payments and food stamps. The Democrats tend to hold such 
taxpayers hostage by also lumping them into the "entitlement " 
group knowing full well that many of the social security 
recipients and pensioners are Republican. Cut off payments to
 our voters and we cut off payments to yours. Its time for some
 common sense and pragmatism. The fact is we can cut welfare
 type benefits without affecting the government's credit but to 
fail in our pension obligations makes the "full faith and credit" 
of the United States a joke. We must separate pension 
obligations including social security from welfare entitlements". 

 The good news for both sides if they could stop squabbling long 
enough to listen is that the recovery is around the corner no 
thanks to any occupant of the White House or the Congress. 
More over the recovery is going to be extraordinarily strong and
 long lasting. This means there need be no rush to default or 
draconian measures. Both sides must be committed to 
paying off the debt without damaging the American 
Government's credit or pushing people out onto the street.

 Looking down the road thirty years at the on set of the 
"singularity" that some futurists call this convergence of 
technologies reducing labor to a fraction of today's levels 
leaders have to realize that conventional socialism isn't the
 answer, but they are going to have to decouple conventional 
ideas of "work" from earnings or risk mass starvation and 
civil war in middle of the greatest level of material wealth that 
mankind has ever had. Enter the NAMAZU idea "the active 

 Down in cousin Jack's Louisiana some very rural parishes are 
governed by "police juries". These are sort of a commission that
 approves budget outlays for public works like roads, and 
provides public safety services, and parks and recreation. 
Generally police jury members are elected. But if enough 
candidates don't run, members can be drafted as in what they 
call a "petite jury" for a trial. Now let's look at some painful 
American history. America started out as a republic where 
pretty much the landed gentry and the professional class were 
the electorate. America gradually evolved into a more 
democratic form where those who could read and were 
interested enough in public affairs to pay a poll tax could vote
 and elect the representatives who would serve in the legislature 
and they could vote for the key executives such a President and
 Governor. This was part of the American evolution from 
republic into full representational democracy. But we lost 
something along the way as the franchise was expanded. 
What we lost was a majority electorate of educated and 
concerned citizens, throwing many elections to the most 
entertaining , dare I used the term, "demigod". That is one of 
the reasons why American government malfunctions so often. 
A little history is in order here.

 One of the great milestones on the road to representational 
democracy was the paying of elected office holders. Until the 
public began to pay a salary to elected legislators the only 
people who could afford to serve in office were the landed 
gentry and other independently wealthy. Paying public office 
holders changed that and made the legislature and executive 
more responsible to the people. But today America has reached 
the far end of that trend. Ignorant and indolent people have 
learned that they can vote themselves cash and other benefits 
right out of the public treasury. To get better government we 
need a better electorate.

 In the coming years as more and more educated people become
 unemployed and unemployable we need to establish corps of 
professional electors in every jurisdiction. These would be 
groups of educated voters paid to study the issues being 
prepared for the general electorate . They would be required to
 meet formally, study documents, and discuss the pros and cons 
of everything going on the ballot. They would be required to vote in the usual secret ballot but early. Without attribution to individual electors their votes would be 
counted and the results yea and nay published for the public 
before the general election. Their votes would count in the 
general election and the general voting public would be free to
 vote as they saw fit. Such bodies which we might call elector 
colleges would have a positive influence on general elections. 
These colleges would function at precinct,  county, and state 
levels. Members would be paid and could come from 
neighborhood elections, and independent commission 
appointments. There would be a career pattern that would 
begin with precinct service for those interested. These would 
be the lowest deliberative chambers of government but without 
dictating would signal to the less involved voter how the 
informed were voting. In important but low interest elections
these electors insure that someone other than spoils seeking 
partisans turn out and vote, because the elector college members
 always vote.

 In a future where work opportunities are rare the government 
would have to do something that would choke the average 
Republican today. The government would have to insure 
portable retirement benefits, health benefits, expanded 
unemployment compensation for the part time and serial 
worker. For those who want to work, work is probably going to 
be sporadic and often part time. America can't follow the 
present Republican model and just throw such  interested 
workers to the wolves. But we can't follow the Democratic 
model and just put them on a government dole and come load
 them onto buses at election time to haul them to the polls to pull
 the lever for the party favoring the dole.  

 The Republican value of work needs to be honored by insuring that those who want to work in an economy which needs so few workers can earn a middle class living by constantly making them selves available for work and responding when called . Those who prefer not to constantly chase gainful employment should be engaged in the elector colleges insuring that democracy works intelligently starting at the grass roots level. Those who neither qualify for periodic work or the elector corps should be engaged in formal education or training and government will have to pay for it and their living expenses. Such government involvement and planning in people's lives is abhorrent to freedom loving people today. So the system has to be open, and voluntary. Those with inherited wealth who don't want to be professional electors or periodic workers, or paid scholars should be free to be hedonist if they prefer. Those who would like to try their hand at a simple subsistence farmer life style, or create a small business should still share in an expanded safety net. But government will be necessary to   assure that the large long lived, general population has a variety of activities to choose from that will put the medium of exchange in their hands and assure that there is a market of consumers for those who produce products and especially for those who invent new ones. In the world of the cyber linked intelligent human of tomorrow there will be only one shortage if we move towards the future deliberately, and that will be conventional jobs. 

 The left will have to acknowledge that work is a necessary part of the human nature. Without it we tend to degenerate and societies become plagued with crime. The right will have to acknowledge that in the world to come, devil take the hindmost capitalism will spell starvation and war. There are issues of taxation, and regulation, and monetary policy that will have to be resolved (hey I'm a giant catfish not a candidate for world emperor, you can't expect a full blue print for the future here). But the bottom line is easy to discern "ismatic" thinking has to go. So here is the NAMAZU PROPOSAL:

 I want to address this to two groups; college age kids, and their grandparents. Young people this will all fall on you. Your parents will probably remain Democrats or Republicans occasionally crossing the line for an individual candidate of particular appeal. They will remain consumer voters selecting between the two parties and putting little thought into their votes until pretty close to election time. They are going to leave you with a mess. Either don't join or resign from either major party now. Re-register independent right away. Get together with your grandparents and form a national pragmatic party. Your grandparents can't recognize the government today. They grew up thinking of it as a working partner and have seen it degenerate into a squabbling bunch of partisan ideology driven do nothings. Your grandparents can produce eligible candidates for offices with minimum qualifying ages as well as candidates with a credibility factor to get your new party some cross over voters from the working adult sector. Your grandparents are less likely to screw you over than the thirty to fifty something crowd of working adults. Your grandparents actually care about your future and may now have the time for politics.  But if you don't act now to end the politics of today rest assured that the next president of the United States will hijack the recovery, take credit for it , be believed by half the electorate or more and try to establish a political dynasty on it. That means you arrive at the post recovery era of permanently shrinking job opportunities with a government and a society totally unprepared. Time to put aside the old ideas and conflicts and start supporting policies that work with out sticking labels of the left or right on them. Children, save yourselves, your political leaders won't do it for you and your parents are politically clueless. But fore warned is fore armed. 

OK, that's been a lot for you to absorb I'll sign off now ;

Namazu the Earth Shaker 

Editors Note: After parts 1 and 2 of NAMAZU FULLY LOADED were transcribed from the hydro phones we were frankly "flabergasted". We asked the great catfish how on earth he ever came up with all this while wallowing about on the sea floor in the Sea of Japan. He said: "I read a lot". So we asked him for a couple of suggestions. We were "flabergasted" again. here are his suggestions below. Don't click on the first one unless you are deadly serious.


DISCLAIMER: The management of American Admiralty Books has decided to pull WORLD WIDE OIL AND GAS INDUSTRY PREDICTIONS links from the AAB site. We appreciate that a demigod like Namazu has world wide sources and expense is no object when he does his research for his opinion, which we continue to highly value. However we would not want anyone to mistake an official AMERICAN ADMIRALTY BOOKS RECOMMENDATION with simply the suggestion of a particular author within the blog. We realize that low circulation technical publications are generally high priced. We link to quite a few that cost several hundred dollars a copy. However $4,500 was too much for us to spend for a chance at reviewing the download. We are making no judgement on the worth or the contents of this Amazon distributed product. But as an Amazon portal we distinguish our entry portal from other Amazon entry portals or the main Amazon site by the fact that we are subject matter experts and we are generally familiar with those titles we link to for sale. This particular document is beyond our finincial ability to review. We will work with Namazu to post in this space less expensive oil and gas information sources that tend to support the observations that he articulated in the two part series "NAMAZU FULLY LOADED: THE FUTURE OF AMERICA. This management decision is not meant in any way to reflect on Namazu as author or the pulled suggested reading as a source of information. This is strictly an economic   The Singularity Is Near: When Humans Transcend Biology,+Low_00000000&2sid=Google_&sourceId=PLGoP79700&gclid=CjwKCAiAnabTBRA6EiwAemvBd5FYZONS6NBC8fRuV13849YDB1UGJt2MXE9P3oV7H8yw6fp4qocGbRoCuFcQAvD_BwE

The last single commodity to occupy a central role in a global economy before oil was spices. Namazu remembers the spice era quite well and highly recommends its study to those concerned about how the oil based economy will play out. He suggests:

SPICE by Jack Turner.    

  Non Technical Guide to the Oil and Gas Industry by Norman J. Hyne 

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