Sunday, December 15, 2013




Editor's note: 1/29/2017: Well we are now over 100 days into the Trump Administration. While we still back the Great Catfish as an unusually astute predictor of events we thought it time to revisit his pre- election predictions. To our amazement we found that the Trump Administration so far has largely not performed as predicted by the Great Catfish, but  has in fact far outperformed his pessimistic earlier assessments.

  8/29/2016 We thought this worth a revisit. The catfish called it right back in 2012. America did recover from the market crashes and recession of 2008 under the Obama Administration, but as Namazu noted, not because of the Obama administration. The oil and gas the Catfish predicted did come in and after much resistance by the Obama administration, the export ban has been largely lifted. But before the Obama administration retires another economic down turn is in progress. Again we face a presidential election featuring two people , neither one of whom is really suited to the office. One, Trump, has no experience in public office and his real approach to office is yet to be seen. The other Hillary or "Killery" as some critics refer to her, is fundamentally a globalist elitist, probably a criminal, and is largely funded by China, Saudi Arabia, George Soros and other enemies of freedom. The catfish has been strangely silent on the looming election so we thought it best to crank up the hydrophones and talk with him. Here is a summary of what he had to say about the current election.

1. There will be a sudden and great decrease in the stock market immediately after the election. It doesn't matter who is elected this correction is over due and will come regardless of who is in office. Whether or not Trump will be able to do anything that could shorten the duration or lessen the depth of the correction is unknown and unknowable. It is a virtual certainty that Hillary will worsen the situation, unless she chooses to do nothing, which is contrary to her socialist centrally planned government run economic philosophy.  This correction could be as much as -50% of the present market value of most otherwise solid corporate stocks. * The Great Catfish seems to have gotten this one wrong. The market has run these last 100+ days contrary to the historical post election trends and has actually been booming.  We asked Namazu about this and he acknowledged his misjudgment. He  says that he underestimated the relief that the business communities would feel upon realization that Hillary would not be leading the Executive Department, that relief initially turned into elation and the market shot up. That the gains have lasted into the first 100 days and beyond Namazu attributes to Mr.Trump's visible efforts and progress at tax reform, and deregulation. The Great catfish still cautions that the market is still over due for a major correction and cautions investors to examine the fundamentals of any company they are thinking of buying stock in. Namazu doesn't want to put a time frame on any market down turn but notes that markets can not go up forever and no one should expect a rising tide that lifted all boats not to lower most boats on the ebb. Buy individual companies with good fundamentals at reasonable prices. Basically the Great Catfish is of the school that believes that any stock you wouldn't want ten years from now you don't want to hold ten minutes. Timing the market is for investors who know what they are doing and have all day every day to do it.  

2. If Hillary gains office the dollar within 6 months to a year will experience a global devaluation resulting in about a 30% loss of purchasing power, with a dramatic effect on retirements, other savings and investments, consumer spending and driving the US economy closer to collapse. If Trump is elected, the stock market will still fall, and the dollar will still be under attack from currency manipulators such as China, what he will do about it is as yet unexplained in the campaign rhetoric and advertising. * Hillary wasn't elected so we'll never know for sure if the Great Catfish was right in his first prediction but he is so often right that we have to admit feeling relief that her expected election didn't occur. Obviously as explained earlier Mr. Trump was elected and the market behaved opposite the Namazu prediction and boomed and continues to boom as we enter the second 100 days of the Trump Administration. China still looms as a currency manipulator but since the inauguration of Mr. Trump has not acted. We still haven't heard how he intends to handle such a situation, neither has China and that may have something to do with why they have refrained from acting. 

3. If Hillary is elected the national debt will continue to expand eventually bankrupting the United States. If Trump is elected he has promised to halt the growth and to eventually shrink the national debt.  Can he do it? We don't know, but Trump has promised to try, Hillary will simply continue to rack up more debt. Namazu stands by this one.

 We couldn't get much more out of the Great Catfish this election season. He seems rather depressed. As our readers are aware while the Great Catfish is a global citizen and not a subject or citizen of any particular nation he is very fond of America in particular, and the English speaking peoples of the world generally, as well as his nearest neighbors the Japanese. He does not see a great future for the US or the West generally despite all of the factors he described in 2012 which should propel the US into prosperity and global leadership. He sees the Obama administration as having squandered the reputation, credit, and opportunities that were available to the US starting back in 2012. He views Hillary as a third term for Obama and thinks she will "finish off" the United States. He simply has no history he can  relate to relative to Mr. Trump. We pressed him hard for his best advice to voters and all he would say is....."Hold your nose if you have to , vote for Trump....and pray. * The Great Catfish seems to have softened his attitude towards Mr. Trump personally and has a bit more confidence in the future if Mr. Trump can survive the endless onslaught of the "Deep State"something Namazu considers alive, well, and evil intended. 

People often ask why on earth did we give that giant catfish complete editorial freedom? Perhaps you have read his serial diatribe "To The English Speaking Peoples" where he is urging the formation of an English speaking naval union and explaining the array of naval threats to the English speaking world. Sometimes he seems arrogant ( well he is the size of Japan and was once worshiped as a demigod), curt, and always politically incorrect. But we let him rip because he is almost always dead right! His insights while curtly spoken, have depth ( which we'd expect from an analyst living at the bottom of the sea). If you have any doubts read the excerpt below from his post on the day after the Presidential election. Then read what the Washington Post had to say three months later. Namazu knew all along, the Washington Post is just starting to get it. We could give other examples but the bottom line is this ; if you don't read and take the catfish seriously, you're behind the curve. Really.


"As I write this today Tuesday, November 6, 2012 the two leggers known as Americans went to the polls to decide by democratic vote, or electoral fraud who will occupy the single most powerful office on earth for the next four years or longer. Today America had a choice between two men neither one of which is really suited to govern. I'm not going to predict the election results for you because those will be in by the time this is posted on the Internet. The big issue in this election was the economy. Here is a news flash for you, get ready, this is big, this is earth shattering, drum roll please:

 "There is a massive and rapid economic recovery coming to be followed by a relatively prolonged period of rising American Prosperity. This recovery/ restoration will be fully manifested within 42 months, possibly as early as 36 months and the first signs that the national media will be able to read are just around the corner. Who ever you elected today as president had nothing to do with this recovery, but the nearly 40% of the electorate that doesn't pay income tax and another 10% or so who are chronically clueless will credit the sitting President at the time with the boom. Who is president will determine whether we will develop our new found riches into a legacy for the future or squander it in useless programs that bring us to ruin when this next economic merry go round stops. Remember you heard all this here first. Print out and keep this posting for the future."

America is back (The media starts to catch on two months later)

By David Ignatius
Wednesday, February 6


"Confidence and liquidity are returning to European markets, as Deutsche Bank co-chairman Anshu Jain told the conference. He noted that default rates have halved in Italy and Spain, trading volatility has declined, and countries and corporations are again able to tap the financial markets.
But the abiding economic fact, which underlay nearly every discussion here, is that the U.S. economy is on the way back — not just a recovery from 2008 but also toward a new energy self-sufficiency and manufacturing edge based on low-cost oil and gas shale. Jain argued that, given these cost advantages, the U.S. economy “looks very strong for the next 20 years.”
That’s the irony as the foreign-policy wheels of 2013 start turning. Almost despite itself, America is back, embracing once again its traditional allies. It may have struggled in Iraq and Afghanistan, it may be facing a rising China, but somehow it has managed to fall uphill.
This is one of the blessings of American power: You can make enormous economic mistakes, embark on costly and largely futile foreign wars, watch your closest European allies flirt with disaster — and still look like the indispensable, inevitable power. As Dorothy said, there’s no place like home."

Editor's note 8/29/2016:  The prolonged period of prosperity didn't happen, despite the fact that so much of what the Great Catfish and later the Washington Post described did come true, the opportunity was squandered as the Obama administration threw up road block after road block to taking advantage of the events . Examples include but are not limited to opposing the repeal of the export prohibition on American oil and gas. It required that the democratic majorities in the House and Senate be turned out of office but eventually the ban was over turned, but not soon enough to drive prosperity. America's position as the leading exporter of refined petroleum products continues to be threatened by constant pipeline construction opposition by the still sitting Obama administration. Obama still opposes the reverse engineering permits that would allow us to convert our old natural gas importing facilities into export facilities for our own glut of natural gas. Obama Care has raised the cost of health insurance, done nothing to reverse the decline in alternatives, and hopelessly complicated the health care situation for most working , tax paying Americans, who continue to decline in numbers. In short the Democratic office holders , even as they declined in number, steadfastly opposed every move required to take economic advantage of America's newly discovered wealth in oil and gas, allowed Chinese evasion of our custom laws, imported millions of illegal immigrants including hostile Islamic supporters of terror, and shipped more US jobs offshore than ever. The Catfish was right about all of the underlying factors that should be driving us into a period of prolonged prosperity. We think he has become despondent because he failed to see the Democratic party as the virolent enemy of the people and founding principals of the United States that it has become. Camelot is gone folks, the commies are in. 


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