Tuesday, March 26, 2013

3/26/2012 How Far Will The Dragon Swim-Naval Interest


File:USN-JASDF ship and aircraft formations during ANNUALEX 2008 081119-N-7047S-140.jpg
U.S. Navy and Japanese Maritime Self Defense Forces Ships and Air Craft Operating Together- They Will Slay The Dragon If Attacked, But At What Cost? Official U.S. Navy Photo by MCS3  Ian Schoeneberg
      We have been describing the emerging threats of war in the Pacific basin for months. Then when we monitor the various net work evening news programs we rarely notice a single feature  on this single most dangerous flash point in the world. The national, and much of the world media outside of Japan, the Philippines, Vietnam, and China itself seem focused on events in the Middle East and the EU's economic worries.  We are not professional journalists, we have been professional maritime analysts.   We have confidence in our analysis and do believe that we have assessed the present situation rightly. But it is disconcerting when the world corps of Journalists seem oblivious to the things we are most concerned with as analysts. But this is how we see it even if no on else does.

 If the Dragon doesn't back off soon from its headlong rush to steal territory from its neighbors and test the will of Japan and the U.S., someone in the field on one side or another will make a mistake in this game of brinkmanship. That on scene commander will commit an act of war that will be answered, and the terrible Genie will be out of the bottle. With the United States in a full blown naval conflict with a challenging power, the Middle East will break out as a second front.  In the end the economy of China will be in ruins and her once promising Navy and now centralizing Coast Guard will be on the bottom of the China Seas.  The U.S. and Japan will be badly damaged economically and may suffer some infrastructure as well as naval losses but will emerge as clear victors. 

 The U.S. will eliminate a major portion of its debt as it repudiates it debt to China at the onset of hostilities, no one expects a nation to finance a war against itself. China will not be invaded but if it makes good on its hinted nuclear threats against the United States, Japan, or Australia it will be will be turned into a glow in the dark parking lot. China may well face regime change, the one thing the Communist Party has been trying to avoid. Numerous U.S. businesses with plants in China will lose fortunes. But in the end both the U.S. and Japan will emerge in a recovery mode  and China will be in ruins. 

 It was gratifying yesterday to find one media outlet with at least this much in common with our view of the Far East situation. The Telegraph's Ambrose Evans Pritchard wrote yesterday:

.... "This peace complex adds a strange twist to events. It inhibits Japan as a muscular China presses its claim on the Diaoyu/Senkaku islands -- a cluster of uninhabited rocks near Taiwan -- and as Chinese warships push deep into Japanese waters.   
Yet there is no doubt that Japan will fight." "We simply cannot tolerate any challenge now, or in the future. No nation should underestimate the firmness of our resolve," said Shinzo Abe, the hawkish premier bent on national revival.
After talking to Japanese officials in Tokyo over the last few days, I have the strong impression not only that they are ready to fight, but also that they expect to win, and furthermore that conflict may come at any moment.
"They are sending ships and even aircraft into our territory every day. It is intense provocation."
THE TELEGRAPH article also noted the following:
  "Nothing has changed since outgoing US Defence Secretary Leon Panetta said China and Japan were drifting towards war, except for the Japanese defence budget. Spending on warships and aircraft will jump by 23pc this year."

   The TELEGRAPH is able to go into more detail in a single article including photos, maps ,other graphics and links than we are able to in our blog post format. If you have been picking up on the dangerous situation in the China Seas piecemeal by reading an occasional blog of ours, or if you are following Namazu's piecemeal address to "The English Speaking World" on the risks of the swimming dragon that is China, we urge you to read this TELEGRAPH article and its various links. The author doesn't totally agree with our analysis but he does see the real probability of the region igniting a world war, and he at least acknowledges Japan's determination to come out with flag flying, even if he doesn't join us in our prediction of victory over the dragon. Click the link below for the full story:


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