NAMAZU ON :THUG STATES

1/29/2012 Namazu to The English Speaking Bipeds Part 1
1/12/2020 Updated
Links checked : 1/25/2020

NAMAZU ADDRESSES THE ENGLISH SPEAKING WORLD PART I  "THUG STATES"

THE GREAT NAMAZU, MARITIME POLITICAL ANALYST

 I have asked the editors  for space to address the English speaking bipeds of the World. I know that English is the most widespread second language on Earth and that many non native speakers will read this. That's good, and I hope that the non native speakers understand what I have to say. But this is particularly addressed to those peoples in nations great and small where English is an official language; from Great Britain, to the United States, and Canada, from Belize, and the Bahamas, to Australia, and New Zealand, to India and South Africa,and many other nations. This is addressed to all those peoples who have English as an official language and live in parliamentary democracies, or democratic republics and have in common at least some of the English common law.  It was once said, not long ago, that "the sun never sets on the British Empire". It is true today that the sun never sets on the English speaking world. Somehow English speaking peoples , especially in North America managed to inherit the most agriculturally productive soils in the most salubrious climates on the planet. The English speaking bipeds are in fact the most prosperous and most geographically widespread people on the planet. They  also generally enjoy the most personal freedom. There are forces gathering that want to change that. If they succeed and the societies of the English speaking peoples are destroyed , all the world will be plunged into darkness. You my English speaking biped friends must act soon or your children, if they survive will inherit a very changed and unpleasant world. Your sources of information don't seem to really understand or notice much of what threatens your world, much of it manifests itself at sea, out of sight and without handy sound bytes.

 Out of a vast colonialism there arose a great blending of cultures that accompanied a wave of national formations. Those nations that evolved with the most affinity for British culture and political systems became the Common Wealth, while others , some with more violent breaks with the colonial power such as the United States were quite distant for a while after independence, but when "human rights" which look an awful lot like "the traditional rights of Englishmen" were threatened, even these nations in the past rallied to support the ideas that the Common Wealth nations think of as embodied in an institution called "the crown". The power of the United States is still unsurpassed but threatened and apparently rapidly diminishing . The combined might of the other English speaking nations has the potential to rival the United States. Unfortunately all across the globe just as the forces of darkness are gathering, the military power and especially the all important naval power of the English speaking world is shrinking in each nation individually. In this series of little chats I want to describe to you the threats you face and conclude with practical things , especially of a naval nature that the English speaking world can do to hold off the danger and again change the world for the better.

 One of the most clear and present dangers to the English Speaking World and others are the predatory naval practices of the "thug states". Thug states are different from "rogue states". Thug states have authoritarian governments but not always seeming so to many of their people. Thug states can have at times a fair measure of popular support among their citizens. Thug states may not be governed ethically or with kindness, but they are headed by logical if ruthless people. Their thug like behavior towards targeted nations and groups within their own societies do follow a certain logic. Thug states are grasping states, they want to grow and are willing to fuel growth through taking whatever they can get away with. The good news is that because thug states are logical they can be restrained and deterred if a society or combination of societies can meet their deterrent calculus. The two most threatening thug states on the world scene right now are China who our editors have been calling "the Dragon" for months, and that old bear, Russia. The threats they pose to the world, and especially the English speaking world right now are very much naval and maritime in character.

The Dragon's Symbol, the Flag of China

The Flag of the Russian Bear

 The Flags above are being planted forcefully in watery places that belong to other people. At first hearing  the news that the Dragon has machine gunned Vietnamese sailors over a reef where the Vietnamese were trying to plant a flag may not seem like much of a threat to any English speaking nation. But consider that the reef was within the usually accepted guidelines for exclusive economic zones (EEZs) for Vietnam and that the reef is hundreds of miles from anywhere in China. Why should that concern the English speaking world? After the dragon has eaten all of the non English speaking buffer states , do you think it doesn't want to walk on the beaches of Australia or New Zealand? Click on the link below to see for yourself just how ruthless the Chinese navy can be. The year was 1988 but things have only gotten worse over the years as has been reported in these pages.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uy2ZrFphSmc

When the Dragon is not shooting Vietnamese , it is harassing the Philippines in other parts of the Spratly Islands, or bumping up against the Japanese Coast Guard in the disputed Diautu / Senkaku Islands.But here a study of their actions against the Philippines and Japan, two allies of the United States offer cause for both hope and despair. Hope because they have not been shooting at these two navies and Coast Guard's capable of more self defense than Vietnam, and able to call on the U.S. Pacific fleet if need be. Here the dragon shows logic. In the face of real force the dragon is more cautious. But on the other hand the confrontations are full of brinkmanship, frequent, unrelenting, and escalating. China is just one miscalculation away from starting a naval war in the South and East China Seas. And they are getting bolder. The week before the origibal publication of this post, in these pages, we reported on the unofficial veiled threats of nuclear retaliation against Australia should that English speaking nation and long time ally of the United States openly support the United States in any naval conflict in the China seas.

The dragon's game is divide and conquer. The dragon's navy grows while the United States Navy continues to shrink while assuming global responsibilities. Japan and the Philippines are producing a naval/Coast Guard build up despite the fiscal strain. But the dragon is out pacing them easily with apparently little fiscal strain. The Dragon keeps one eye on the Indian Tiger, a formidable navy in the near by Indian ocean. But so far India seems to want to stay out of any China Seas dispute. Yet India seems aware that Dragon methods are dragon methods. If the dragon swallows the "First Island Chain", it has ambitions for the Indian Ocean. The Indian Navy remains a wild card in China's calculation of conquest. So the shooting holds off for the time being. But the Chinese naval growth continues as the Philippines, and Japan reluctantly enter a ruinous naval arms race. India continues on toward naval growth , but in a non emergency mode, while the United States "pivots towards the Pacific", with an ever shrinking fleet. The China seas aren't the only place in the Pacific Basin where the Dragon is positioned to damage the friends and trading partners of the English speaking world. 

 The United States may have treaty rights to defend the Panama Canal, but China's COSCO Shipping agency  won the contract to operate it. Without ever firing a shot China is in a position to delay the re-enforcement of America's Pacific fleet from Atlantic fleet units. Major fleet actions , once the shooting starts are usually over in hours not days. If you know the time of your attack an unexpected lock gate "issue" delaying a fleet of U.S. Atlantic fleet units by as little as 8 hours could be as effective in the outcome of a China Sea battle as sinking them. When invited to a naval shoot out if you can't show up on time, you're probably of no use. The Dragon is biding his time, pressing the weakest links while the English speaking navies continue to shrink.

 Mean while in the High Arctic the Great Bear is pressing a claim to nearly the entire Arctic ocean, claiming that Russia's rightful EEZ extends to at least the North Pole. The United States with thousands of miles of Alaska coast line on the Arctic and known deposits of oil, has virtually no naval or Coast Guard presence. With oil exploration activity already underway the Coast Guard has been directed to produce a "persistent presence" in the High Arctic, but progress so far indicates that this is just another "unfunded mandate". Canada has a more persistent naval and Coast Guard presence in the region but their Coast Guard is unarmed. Russia has a constantly building fleet of large nuclear powered ice breaking ships, is creating vessel traffic services, and placing more "Border Guard" patrol vessels and naval units in the area. Does the Bear want Alaska back? Apparently the United States has caved in and given them, over the intense protest of the State of Alaska, an island the size of New Jersey , Wrangel Island. This island is admittedly closer to Russia than Alaska but has been administered effectively by the United States for over one hundred years, was discovered by a United States Government vessel, and surveyed by a Federal agency. There was for a short time some habitation and industry on the island of American origin which died out. So when the Russians started making noise about wanting the island the U.S. gave up a land area roughly the size of New Jersey with out so much as a wimper or without generating much media notice in the "lower 48." 

 These have been just a few samples of just some of the hostile naval posturing of the two largest thug states.  English speaking nations wake up! A swimming dragon is waiting to devour you. Once you ruled the waves, now you are slipping. Believe it or not these thug state threats are possibly the easiest to deal with since they do respond to a predictable logic of fear and greed. Rebuild your naval strength with maximum interoperability with each other and draw together. It is time for an English speaking naval union able to operate in concert and turn on a dime. If you meet the thug state threat head on you will have many of the arrows in your quiver needed to deal with the largely naval rogue state threats and some of the non state threats that will bury you if you chose to hang separately.  I will be continuing in this vein for some days. Stay alert, pay attention, that is fire breath you feel.

Namazu