Thursday, September 5, 2013


Updated/links checked 9/26/2015/ 2/24/2016

American Admiralty Books Safety & Privacy Policies (Attention EU Visitors , possible "cookie" encounter ahead) 

Rainforest Vegetation
ARCTIC TUNDRA 2100 ? Photo by           High Arctic This Fall? Photo; Wikipedia Commons

Petr Kratochvil 

Namazu, Dean of the Namazu School of Climatology

Hello Bipeds! Warm enough for you this Summer? Of course it is, and if you are a true believer in global warming like Al Gore you know its all the result of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions, and if it is allowed to continue the High Arctic picture to your right above will look like the lowland tropics as depicted to your left, above. Of course,  if you get your meteorological and climate information from Al Gore you probably wouldn't think of hunting without your violin. We watch the climate here not to debate what man caused green house gases are doing to the atmosphere but to discuss what governments, industry, and individuals should be doing to survive real climate change. I'm talking about the kind that killed the dinosaurs, and another one much later that quick froze Woolly Mammoths before they could swallow the temperate zone vegetation they had in their mouths. We're not talking about inconvenient one foot of ocean level change, three degree of global average temperature change. I'm talking about flash ice ages. They happened you know. There are macro forces of nature out there that we can't predict, avoid, or control that drive such events. These macro force of nature events include axis wobble, orbital irregularities, sun burst events, hyper volcanic activity, ocean current changes, meteor and comet strikes, or any combination there of. So we advocate studying how humans can design shelter that is cost effective for the climate you find yourself in today but could service your needs if the climate changed over night from summer temperate to winter polar. We also look for ways that food production can be moved closer to centers of population and divorced from climate ,we're talking technologies like indoor hydroponics.

 It's not only big macro events that can change climate or even atmospheric content.  Sometimes very small things considered in total add up to something very big. Have you ever noticed that our atmosphere contains traces of methane? Did you ever wonder where that methane came from? Most people assume it comes from human activity such as beef ranching and sewerage disposal. But those traces were there before humans walked the earth. But they did come from social beings that work in concert and are heavily productive. They are called termites, and they have been on the planet longer than us, out number us as individuals , and if gathered into a single biomass far out weigh the entire weight of the human population. Kind of makes you wonder just who is the really dominant life form on the planet. So the source of all that methane gas that amounts to a trace?   99.9% of it is attributed to millions of years of termite flatulence. Really, I just report the facts I don't make this stuff up.

 Despite the fact that our own methane producing nitrogenous waste  appears to be massive in volume, in Homo Sapiens slightly over 200,000 years on the planet we haven't held a candle to termite flatulence in terms of methane production. That kind of makes you wonder what about 100 years of human carbon dioxide production has really contributed and how long we may really have to tone it down. Of course all living things produce carbon dioxide by breathing, and only green plants such as trees and micro green things such as certain types of ocean plankton  reduce carbon dioxide and produce oxygen. So if we have more creatures breathing including bipeds than doing the photosynthetic thing, carbon dioxide levels have to rise. So who wants to stop breathing first?

 Well, we have some new data in that AL Gore isn't going to like. It' s called the "200 month pause". Now all you Al Gore true believers don't go start calling us "climate deniers"  for bringing this up. The mere fact that average global temperatures have not risen  in over 200 months in no way eliminates the fact that since mid century it has risen by about 1.7  degrees Fahrenheit (if I've done my metric conversion correctly)  and that recent decline (last winter) in global average temperature is only a fraction of that 1.7 degrees. But here comes the zinger. Some scientists are predicting that due to predictable solar anomalies possibly  between this winter (2013) and next but definitely by 2020 we might see a near 2 degree drop ( assuming I've done the metric conversion correctly) in global average temperature taking our one or two year average global temperature to roughly .3 degrees below the rise since since mid century. There is absolutely nothing we can do about this "global cooling" its not caused by our activities. We also have no idea how long the effect will last. After the temperature fall will we resume the 200 month pause, or resume a rise, or continue falling ?   Two or three years or so from now, assuming the solar anomaly predictions and their effect on climate come true we will be looking at about a 50 year period where global temperatures rose slowly by approximately 1.7 degrees, and then held fairly steady for about 16 years, then fell rather suddenly to .3 degrees below the highest point in the rising period for a total half century variation cooler / warmer of 3.7 degrees. What's it mean? Who knows, but I wouldn't bet the farm on simple linear projections on what the climate will be at the end of the century. Remember, tomorrow the earth's rotational axis could shift for reasons we still can't explain, predict or do anything about, and the global climate could change big time over night. That's why we'd rather discuss ways to insulate the human population centers from the effects of sudden, massive climate change.

 In previous posts I've explained how 3 D printing and other technologies are going to seriously reduce smoke stack industries all over the planet in the near future. I've described United States efforts to reduce our green house gas emissions and how China, Brazil, India and others then increase production. Our green house gas production not yet the influence on the atmosphere that termite flatulence has been is going to decrease due to technological developments and not out of any political movement. But while we debate what amounts to evolutionary trivia, we could be engulfed in a climate event not of our making damaging all life on earth and threatening humans as a species. There is no need for that, we have the technologies right now to save our major population centers even if we experienced sudden on set global arctic winter. Climates change that's what they do. The latest data of past recorded and averaged measurements plus a near term prediction based on predicted solar activity indicates a half century rise of 1.7 degrees, a 200 month pause, that now looks like it will be followed by a rather rapid 2 degree drop. The truth is that at the moment we have no idea what the trend will be after that or how fast any more change will come. But change will come, climates change that's what they do. We can muddle through the changes we are observing, and even muddle through, at least in terms of the survival of the species, the Al Gore level of predicted change which assumes trend is future and ignores the changes since the gospel of global warming was first pronounced. Meanwhile catastrophic sudden climate change remains a low likelihood possibility for any given day, but an absolute certainty in man;s collective future  unless the bipeds blow themselves off the planet first. Sudden massive climate change has happened repeatedly in the past. It will happen again .

 OK, like I said my numbers could be slightly off I favor the British Imperial measure and have difficulty with metrics and the science guys write in metric. But you can read all this for yourself at  complete with graphs, analysis and in unconverted and I might add, unrepentant metric.

No comments:

Post a Comment