Tuesday, July 1, 2014



NAMAZU, Giant Japanese Catfish and Retired Demigod Once Thought To Be In Charge of Tsunamis and Coastal Earth Quakes, ( also former model for rock album covers, subject of an animated movie, subject of fine artists for three thousand years, frequent scholar;ly subject of books and papers), Now Maritime and Meteorological Analysts for American Admiralty Books.

EDITOR'S NOTE: We seem to have received about 7,000 new visitors since Namazu's last major post. Old AAB hands know all about the Great Catfish but many of you who are new may wonder. Namazu's contract gives him complete editorial freedom. His wisdom is ancient, and for a giant in many ways not just size, full of humility along with insight. He usually posts on most anything that is of major consequence in the maritime world, from the catfish perspective that is 75% of the earth's surface oceans, rivers, lakes and enclosed seas on every continent, and many activities of man done far ashore but affecting the seas. He does, after all, live at the bottom of the Sea of Japan. He can take human form for brief periods, that's how we came to know him and employ him. He provides us with unique insights and contacts, it was Namazu who introduced us to our now popular legal correspondent who just happens to be a dead guy, but really quite functional and works cheap....but that's another story. Today Namazu appears in print with some observations on climate change.

Greetings Bipeds! As you know at the Namazu School of Climatology we neither confirm nor deny the concept of on going climate change resulting from biped increased carbon "footprint" on the planet.  We know climates change , that's what they do, and the most disturbing part is that geological history tells us it sometimes changes suddenly ,dramatically, and massively over night due to circumstances still way beyond biped control. Planetary orbit wobble, planetary axis wobble, solar flare activity, volcanic activity, ocean current changes, any of these singly or in any combination have in the geologic past ushered in ice ages and spreading topicality in very short time frames, sometimes faster than over night. Weather we know comes in patterns of cycles colder, warmer, wetter, drier in irregular increments of very roughly 5 years, 20 years, 100 years, and 500 years. But these changes in average weather are not of sufficient magnitude to signal a real change in the climate belts around the globe. The current climate debate is about changes in the weather cycle, do they signal a coming shift in the climatic belts?

 The "common wisdom" since Al Gore first announced that it was to be the common wisdom is that the climate is warming and indeed over the last 30 years it has risen on average about 1.7 degrees. However  16 years ago that rise began to taper off . In the last two years it has fallen about the same amount as it rose in 18 years. This was predicted before it started to happen when astronomers and meteorologists confirmed that the Sun was casting some unusual solar flares in our direction. It is anticipated that we have now entered a cooling period induced by solar flare activity that will last till 2020. It is estimated that we may end 2020 with global temperatures as much as .3 degrees below what they were when Al Gore set the global warming clock. What happens after 2020 is really anybody's guess. There may be a slow warming trend, there may be more solar flare activity taking us down a peg for a season or more, or one of those truly catastrophic events that we can't control could change the entire global climatic belts over night. 

 Our point has always been that governments at all levels should be preparing for the" big one" , the sudden catastrophic change that endangers urban populations and the global food supply.  Nations like the United States that have reduced their carbon emissions and continue to do so make little impact on the global green house gas balance when nations like China, India, and Brazil maintain that they have the right to carbon credits, to burn more fossil fuel end emit more carbon dioxide since other nations did it for so long. Carbon dioxide has been in the atmosphere as long as there has been breathing life on earth. Animate life breaths in the total mix of gases that we call "air". We use the oxygen , and exhale carbon dioxide. Trees and other green terrestrial plants, as well as certain plankton in the ocean take in the carbon dioxide and use it in photosynthesis to create energy and oxygen.  Too much oxygen and the atmosphere could literally become explosive, too much carbon dioxide and there is a discernible green house effect trapping heat. But the last twenty years with it's slow rise in both the level of "green house gases" and average temperature, followed by a rather sudden fall, and an unpredictable future have caused temporary phenomena like droughts, particularly stormy hurricane seasons, and warm winters that seemed to shift climatic boundaries around their extreme edges. We call that weather cycles not climate change.

 Meanwhile you bipeds have failed to really control industrial and household green house gas emissions except in the United States were they decrease annually. Yet there are factions in the U.S. that won't be happy until the United States has exported every heavy industry and gone back to horse and buggy transport. Meanwhile cleaner greener technology continues to be adopted, but at the Namazu School of climatology we predict that green house gases will continue to rise. We frankly think that deforestation contributes more to the change in the atmosphere than industrial and transportation activities of bipeds. Agricultural pasturage does not process carbon dioxide or generate oxygen as efficiently or in the volume that forests do. Politically reforestation is an even more difficult sell in the rapidly developing world than the idea of curbing fossil fuel use is. 

 None the less several trends indicate that despite the reluctance of the developing world to curb fossil fuel based industrial development, or curb deforestation new technologies will force such adjustments in the near future. 3 D printing manufacturing, robotics, and just in time inventory management practices, are bringing manufacturing back to the Western World and Japan, the trend will only increase over time. The oil and coal fired assembly line sweat shops of China are passing into history. All sorts of new agricultural models are arising. The one the Namazu school most encourages is urban, hydroponics food "factory" production. This and similar technologies bring food production closer to the mass of urban food consumers and being indoors protects food production from the hazards of climate change, not the slow , gradual on again, off again climate change that we think we may be observing as a result of human activity, but the kind of rapid and massive change that killed the woolly mammoths quick freezing some so fast that we've found their remains in the permafrost of sub arctic regions with the residue of their last meals in their mouths.  We are subject to and can not control volcanic activity, planetary orbit irregularities, and as we have seen for two winters now , solar flare activity. The kind of change that killed the woolly mammoths is a low probability but high impact event that we absolutely can't control. While some politicians worry and legislate over 20 year weather cycles that may or may not predict some sort of climate change in the distant future, we think governments ought to be looking at food security programs, urban flood protection, building codes etc. that reflect the reality of the distinct possibility of rapid sudden massive climate change that we can't prevent. By 2020, thanks to a relatively mild influence by solar flare activity a couple of years ago we will be starting our temperature / green house gas level monitoring from a starting global temperature average lower than when Al Gore sounded the alarm many years ago.   We think the real lesson of this rapid return to "normal" is that there are mega climate influences that we can not control. But we can control how we produce food , create building codes, and protect urban centers from storms and flood surges. We need to address that while the actual climate as opposed to annual weather changes is relatively quiet.
 Meanwhile if you are not a fan of increased Arctic and Antarctic shipping and oil drilling you may be please to read the latest data on the increasing sea ice in the Antarctic: NewsMax Ice report
In monitoring the climate news this week we also discovered this of interest to climate change doubters which we're sure will be dismissed by those who are dogmatic about man caused climate change. We have previously published on this subject but here we find someone besides the Namazu school examining the same data and coming to a conclusion a bit stronger than our own but along the lines of our extreme caution about accepting post year 2000 data from NASA and NOAA on average U.S. temperatures. Natural News Global Warming Based on Fabricated Data .  Being a giant catfish I am more likely to observe this about you bipeds than you are to notice it your selves. Just as I'm not really conscious of my gills or fins in the same way that a biped observer seeing me in my natural state would be, you bipeds perceive yourselves as far more environmentally consequential than you really are. In fact there is another life form on this planet whose total weight of biomass ( combined weight of all individuals of the species ) is higher than the total weight of humans and all of their domestic animals combined. Indeed this species has billions more individuals than the human race. This species has contributed more to the mix of gases in the earth's atmosphere than mankind has so far . Yes I've covered this all before but for you new readers you need to check out the effects of termite flatulence a part of an article by yours truly that predicted the recent news in this post. To the biped mind the idea that termites technically by weight of biomass, number of individuals, and effect on the atmosphere may really be the "dominant" species is unsettling. Bipeds have massive egos and among bipeds none is more massive than that of Al Gore. Yet even Al Gore has had less effect on the atmosphere than termite flatulence. That's the fact Jack, check it out by clicking on the link above.




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