Monday, May 13, 2013

5/14/2013 Naval Interest Updated 12/9/2015


Diving Dragon        Tiger 

                                                                 Tiger by Jessica Coulter Smith
Diving Dragon by Derek Comach

Back in the Spring of 2013 we received bad News from the Hindustan Times. India suddenly withdrew from a joint naval exercise with the United States and Japan that was supposed to take place off of the U.S. Pacific Island of Guam. According to an article in the Hindustan times the reason that India backed out was due to protests by China. According to the Dragon (China) multilateral naval exercises between India, the U.S. and Japan are aimed at containing its influence and China has publicly warned all the governments against joining such exercises. Frankly China is right, and brought the situation on itself by aggressively using its naval and Coast Guard forces to literally steal territory from neighboring states, push bogus claims against Japan and the Philippines. Australia's withdrawal from the Quad exercises after 2007 was a fallout of these protests. The Dragon is a thug state . Its present Navy is not so large or competent to stand against the U.S. Pacific fleet combined with any one sizable naval alliance such as one with Japan , or Australia. Fortunately by 2015 both India and Australia had begun exercising again with the United States and Japan. A look back at 2013 is still instructive. Some lessons are still unlearned.

If it were crystal clear that China faced an alliance of the U.S., Japan, Australia, India and the Philippines they would be forced to cease their aggressive behavior and the Pacific would become a much safer and more peaceful place. The lawful Exclusive Economic Zone boundaries could be set and  the oil exploration that China, India, Japan, and the Philippines need could finally begin in an atmosphere of orderly and reliable leasing programs. Even today in 2015 that alliance is not clear. Cooperation and cross training are evident, but there is still no element of all for one, and one for all. 

 The present situation isn't good for anyone including China but moves like those of India in 2013  and Australia back in 2007 are only emboldening the Dragon. During the 2007 "Quad exercises" Five navies joined the U.S. Pacific Fleet in exercising for joint naval security in the Pacific. Its time for all of the Pacific powers to remember that the United States has no real horse in this race. There is no turf of our own that is directly threatened by the Dragon at the moment. Others are closer and will be preyed upon sooner. We can economically combine forces now and present the Dragon with a defense it can't breach or not. We can hang together or we will surely all hang separately in the future. The history of both 20th century World wars tells us that you can not answer aggression with appeasement.

 Do any of us  really want to go it alone right now?


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