Wednesday, May 15, 2013

5/15/2012 The Namazu School


  Greetings Bipeds! For those of you just joining us my Name is Namazu, formerly "Namazu the Great". I work here at American Admiralty Books (AAB) and am a part of American Admiralty Information Systems (AAIS). I work as a maritime analyst investigating, analyzing, and reporting on all manner of maritime developments from naval strategic developments to coastal zone management. But nearest and dearest to my pectoral fin is climatology. You see previously ( the last 3,000 years or so) I was employed as a giant Japanese catfish "demigod". I had quite a bit of trouble with that last job title when I tried to move into "civilian employment" last year. Some on the religious right complained to AAB management bitterly that the company was hiring "Pagans" who were spreading error to biped youth. I had to explain that "demigod" was not my choice for a job title. I view myself as a personification of forces of nature, specifically tropical storms, and coastal earth quakes and associated tsunamis. The Japanese people are too modern for me to serve my old function so I had to seek different employment. In defending my re-employment rights I had to explain that "demigod" was not my choice of job title, and as a Giant catfish I'm not eligible for Baptism or really any sort of induction into any sort of biped religion. I'm not spreading anything except science and logical analysis about those things related to the ocean that I have expert knowledge of. Being 3,000 years old and a giant catfish ,as you may well imagine, I know quite few oceanic subjects "in depth", if you'll pardon my pun. Since I'm 3,000 years old and was a bit famous in Japan, I'm afraid that I'm a rather public figure whose image has varied over the centuries and in recent years. I don't have much in the way of intellectual property rights protection. I discovered that the AAB was already using my image and legend as part of their on going, on line discussions of climatology. They called there discussions "THE NAMAZU SCHOOL".

 I read what they had to say about climate change with an eye towards demanding corrections or publishing a denial that I really didn't hold the positions that they described. But the more I read the more I agreed with the perspective of the AAB. Their position is simple and having a personal weather observation history of over 3,000 years I couldn't agree more. Here is waht the NAMAZU SCHOOL OF CLIMATOLOGY is all about. 

  • Climates change , that's what they do
  • Climates can change gradually over time with some glacial and interglacial cycles running 10,000 years between each other.
  • The Climate may well be undergoing change in response to human activity.Whether the trend is cooling, warming, or simply fluctuating remains to be seen.
  • Regardless of any human influence over global climate at the moment, the climate has changed drastically literally over night in response to comet and meteor strikes, sun spot activity, orbit wobble, axis shift, hyperactive vulcanism, and combinations of these naturally occurring events. such change could happen again anytime without warning.
  • Because of the real possibility of naturally caused instant , drastic climate change we would like to avoid discussion of Man caused climate change and its precise direction at the moment. Lets begin with the acceptance that climates change, they change for a variety of reasons, only some of which we might have any control over and the realization that these naturally caused over night drastic changes have happened in the Earth's past and can happen again at any time. When, not if, climate change occurs if we are not ready for it millions will die.
  • Our discussion is focused on what governments local, regional, and national should be doing to mitigate the effects of a violent climate change on large populations, everything from preventing coastal flooding damages to the security of the food supply.
Below is a posting that the AAB ran creating the NAMAZU SCHOOL OF CLIMATOLOGY before I even came to work here. The posting is a sort of "on line film festival" of hyperlinks to videos illustrating the kind of concepts that the management here was then hoping to receive comments on from our readers. I still hope to ear from some of you in the comments section. What do you think that governments should be doing about flooding damage prevention, food security, economic disruption, etc. caused by dramatic, sudden climate change? What about more gradual change? Let us hear from you but please lets not get into the Rush Limbaugh / Al Gore debate. Climates change, it what they do, what should we do about this inevitability? 

The Namazu Film Festival

Climate Change System Dynamics
Climate Change System Dynamics by James Childs 

 Namazu the mythological Giant catfish of ancient Japan whose wiggling was credited with causing earthquakes and tsunamis is the name we have adopted for our on going discussions of climate change. The most immediate effect of climate change that must be dealt with in the maritime sector is of course the opening of the High Arctic to navigation. Departing a bit from our usually laser sharp focus on things maritime. we said that we'd open the Namazu discussions to other changes like food security that may not appear so maritime in nature, yet it is grain exports that provide a little less than half of the cargoes for the American towboat and barge industry. Its a connected world and waterborne transport does a lot of the connection.

 The other thing that makes the Namazu School a different type of climate change forum is that we aren't concerned with the source of climate change. The entire series began with a guest blog posting describing the Namazu legend and the many ways that climate can change radically, suddenly, and without any input from man. While we debate the present situation surrounding our own influence on climate through our industrial, and transportation, and domestic consumption activities solar flares, a wide spread outbreak of vulcanism, axis wobble, ocean current changes or any combination of these and other elements can generate a massive global climate change over night. The Namazu school notes that this has happened before in the earth's past, all of the climate change elements still exist in nature, so it can happen again. What we have been soliciting comment on is the measures that governments national, regional, and local should take to mitigate the effects of a radical and unexpected climate change. We want to focus on this vice the present arguments over what to do to reduce any effects that human activity may be having on climate change. If we are successful in neutralizing our own effects on the atmosphere, that doesn't eliminate the probability of climate change, and it can be sudden, radical and dangerous and caused by cosmic forces over which we have no control. 

 The Namazu School started back in March of 2012 when the blog was just starting up. There have been a few postings on the subject since but many of our visitors have missed the previous postings so we repeat our basic focus again here. The previous postings are up, if interested, scroll through the postings starting in March 2012 and look for "Oceanography, Climate Change". Meanwhile to fuel discussion below we present a number of videos on climate change and security in face of climate change , especially rapid, massive, change that we can do nothing about.

 To get through the NAMAZU selections with the least amount of unnecessary roaming click on the hyper-links below and at the end of the video click on the return arrow in the upper left corner of the YouTube tool bar. That will bring you right back here where you can click on the next video in the series.

First a look at the science behind current debate over the effects of our carbon foot print: The presenter at least touches on some of the other causes of climate change but is not focused on how rapid and violent these cosmic and natural causes can be.

Our next selection features a World bank figure on agriculture and climate change. It is obvious from the presentation that the speaker believes that a carbon emissions driven climate change is underway. His suggestions for dealing with its effects on agriculture are based on the idea that the worse effects are still a decade or more away. His suggestions all involve voluntary actions by industrialized nations to self limit carbon emissions and to set up funds to compensate poorer agricultural nations. Such "cures" have nothing to do with the what the NAMAZU school is seeking in the way of food security comments. By contrast with the speaker in this video we are looking for the type of measures that would keep urban populations from starving to death in the face of virtually over night massive climate change. We are asking what we should do if orbit, or axis change, or massive vulcanism, solar flares, a meteor strike, or any of dozens of other causes and combinations of causes confront us , with our need to feed massive urban populations. THIS VIDEO IS AN EXAMPLE OF THE TYPE OF CIVIL READINESS DISCUSSIONS THAT ARE GOING ON NOW, NOT THE TYPE WE WANT TO START. YOU WILL NOTE THAT THE SPEAKER COMES FROM A POSITION THAT ASSUMES THAT TREND IS FUTURE AND THAT WE ARE HEADED FOR A MAN CAUSED GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE OF UNKNOWN PROPORTIONS OVER A PERIOD OF DECADES. The Namazu School seeks your comments on what we should be doing acting on the assumption that climate change can and does happen, often suddenly and from causes that we can't control. We simply are not about the usual debate. But here is an example of the typical thinking today on civil preparedness for climate change.

Here is an example of the type of technology that could help secure urban food supplies in the event of sudden climate change.

If our little "film festival" has clarified you idea of what the "Namazu school is all about and how it differs from today's climate change discussions let us have your comments on what governments, corporations, and individuals should be doing to create a world less susceptible to damage by sudden, drastic climate change. Comment on any related subject such as food security, transportation, communications, or the economy. But remember our focus is not on the current debate but on what to do to build a less vulnerable world in the face of the one uncontested fact; climate change happens, often suddenly, and we are not the only potential cause. We could conceivably emerge from the present situation in a much cleaner world and still face extinction as a species from any one or a combination of cosmic (such as solar flare activity or meteor strike), or natural (such as vulcanism) climate change causes. If you find another forum where this discussion is taking place please alert us via the comments section. Welcome to the NAMAZU SCHOOL!

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