Thursday, August 29, 2013


About a year ago:

Russia sends warships to Mediterranean as Syria tensions escalate

Editor's Note: 10/1/2014. This is what the situation looked like in Syria a year ago. As it turned out Russia stayed but convinced Assad to give up his chemical weapons. France and the U.S. backed off on taking military action against Assad. Many of the loosely aligned forces fighting Assad on whose behalf we intervened and eventually supplied weapons to, crossed over to ISIS with their weapons. Assad still controls the coast, Russia is snug in her naval depot there, and ISIS/IS now controls most of the inland area of the former nation as well as about 3/4 of Iraq. We weren't certain which way the situation was going to go in 2013 but we made prediction that didcome true and we suspect will remain true. The Russian presence on the Syrian Coast Continues and will continue. 


Russia is sending an anti-submarine ship and a missile cruiser to the Mediterranean as Western powers prepare for possible strikes against Syria.
The news comes as Britain deployed six RAF Typhoon jets to its Akrotiri base in Cyprus in a move to protect British interests as tensions grow over Syria.
Russia, who has stood staunchly behind the Syrian regime during its two-year civil war, has warned Western powers over strikes against Bashar al-Assad's forces for the use of chemical weapons.
Russia's Interfax news agency quoted a source in the armed forces' general staff as saying the warships would arrive in the coming days because of the "well-known situation" - a clear reference to the conflict in Syria.
The navy later denied the deployment was linked to events in Syria and said it was part of a long-planned rotation of its ships in the Mediterranean.
It did not say what kind of vessels, or how many, 

AAIS ANALYSIS: Russia is already moving its personnel from its Syrian naval base to a large transport ship it has there. While Russia desperately wants to keep its only naval base outside the former Soviet Union, it will sail away from Syria if there is trouble. Despite the shrunken strength of the U.S. Sixth Fleet the Russians know it is being reinforced by elements of the U.S.Atlantic fleet and is joining at least French and Italian naval units in the area. Russia simply doesn't have the staying power to keep the necessary naval fire power on station to change things more to the Bear's liking. The key here for the United States Navy is actual friends in the area. The U.S. Navy is acting in concert with others and enjoys designated support centers in Spain and Italy. With the U.S. ad hoc Sixth Fleet as a center piece around which French and Italian naval units will coordinate nobody in the Med. can match the fire power, so the allies will be able to execute whatever course of action they agree to. We don't think the Russians believe the denials or Mr. Assad any more than the rest of the world does and they probably don't approve of gassing civilians. What they really hate is losing their naval base in Syria but there is little that they can do about it, but then there may be little that they need to do about it because one out come of whatever comes after Mr. Assad's government, one thing is pretty clear it won't be pro U.S. or EU.  So for enough cash, Russia can probably have its base back when the West is finished poking the Assad regime in the eye for murdering its own people.

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