Friday, January 17, 2014


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THE NAVAL INSTITUTE 'S PROCEEDINGS ADDRESSED CLIMATE CHANGE RECENTLY, It Turns out the views of the authors are quite similar to those of Namazu

Namazu, Giant Japanese Catfish and former demigod writing in his role as Dean of the Namazu school of Climatology.

GREETINGS BIPEDS! As you know we here at the Namazu School of Climatology believe that climates change, that's what they do. Every few thousand years we get a real zinger as in a real shift in the boundaries between the tropics and the temperate zone, and the regions of polar weather. But mostly the global climate modulates between a rang of +4 degrees C to -6 degrees C. This modulation over the range of natural variability is usually much smaller than the 10 degree total range and occurs at irregular intervals of 5, 10, 20,and 100 years. Over the course of the 20th century on a year to year basis we actually went through the entire 10 degree total range of natural variability. Locally this amounted to climate change in some places. Lets look at two "subtropical stations" that our staff are very familiar with. The definition of "subtropical" is "no month with a daily average temperature below freezing. For the last decade or so Annapolis , Maryland has met this definition by 1 degree F. The coldest month is January and the average temperature is 33 degrees F. This nudges Annapolis into the technically subtropical climate group. But it is a group and it encompasses among other places most of the states of the old Confederacy but in Virginia and the Carolinas elevation knocks the higher elevation reporting stations squarely into the "temperate long summer group" where the summers are long and warm but there are four distinct seasons with at least one month averaging below freezing. The lowest tier of Southern states are seriously subtropical and the actual Gulf Coast might be called "frustrated tropical" meaning that but for rare and short lived cold fronts the climate would meet the definition of tropical (no month with an average temperature below 65 degrees F. ".

 So how did the Natural variability affect the climate classification of these two reporting stations during the 20th century. New Orleans rates January the coldest month with an average daily high temperature of 63 degrees F and an average nightly low of 48 degrees F for a daily average of a little under 56 degrees F. During the coldest January of the century when New Orleans dropped 6 full degrees F its average nightly low temperature was still ten degrees above freezing and its daily high in the 50s keeping the reporting station well within the subtropical range, indeed still at the "frustrated tropical level" because there really wasn't a drop in average temperatures, there was an increase in the number of record cold days dropping the average. In Annapolis during the lowest part of the range -6F that 1 degree that makes Annapolis a subtropical reporting station disappears and the boundary between subtropical and long summer temperate climate zones shifts. One region that shifts in and out of the subtropical classification is the area around Annapolis, Maryland. It can truly be claimed that temperatures changes within the range of natural variability routinely change the actual climate classification of Annapolis.

 Climate classifications are logically based. Distinct lines have to be drawn and the boundary between zones is as little as 1 degree if it is the difference between freezing and not freezing. The drift in and out of the subtropical climate designation of Annapolis is natural because of natural variability climatic classification boundaries my shift by 50 or 100 miles in any given year. At t he warmer end of the spectrum that +3 degree F mark, New Orleans tickles the tropical designation on its average January daily high temperatures hitting 65 degrees F, but the nightly lows only rise into the 50s making the daily average on the warm side of the subtropical range. Did the climate change during the 20th century?. Near Annapolis it changed quite a number of times as the +3 variant years moved the reporting station more securely into the minimal definition of subtropical ad the -6 years moved it out of that climate description. By contrast deeper into the subtropical zone, New Orleans experienced no "climate change" just variable January weather. Climates change , that's what they do, especially on the local level near the climatic boundaries. But this is not "CLIMATE CHANGE! " as in Al Gore gloom and doom pronouncements.This is pretty much the same cyclical natural variance that has been stable with in a 10 degree range for thousands of years.

 Now for the first time three retired senior naval officers Admiral Thomas B. Heyward , Vice Admiral Edward S. Briggs, and Captain Donald K. Forbes USN (ret.) have tackled and confronted the issue in the pages of the respected NAVAL INSTITUTE PROCEEDINGS. In the January 2014 issue at page 10 they dare to bring forward the data that conflicts with the politically correct assumption of climate change (formerly "global warming, but not in recent years). Climate change has been presented as a homeland security threat. The trio of naval thinkers suggests that we have real threats that we must deal with. Its time to calm down and seriously examine the data and to acknowledge that at certain reporting stations the climate has changed and changed back, actually for thousands of years near the climatic classification boundaries. The occurrence of natural variability doesn't signal national or global disaster. It time every one gave the this group of authors a serious reading and consideration. Their view may be politically incorrect but it involves no scientific supposition as belief in the Al Gore version does.


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