Monday, June 10, 2013

6/10/2012 Merchant Marine Interest: How Far Will The Dragon Swim


       The Chinese Are Building Commercial Port Facilities In The Indian Ocean. Indian Naval Thinkers View These As A Threat To India's Maritime Preeminence . The ECONOMIST Disagrees, We agree with the Indian Naval Thinkers. 

       The Economist 

China’s foreign ports

The new masters and commanders

OUR RESPONSE:Waving Flag #3

 The ECONOMISTS analyst appear to have no understanding of the seamless nature of  Sea Power, not to mention the inability to recognize a thug state when they see one. It seems easier for the Western media to recognize China's aggressive attempts at land grabbing among the islands of the East and South China seas, a policy the Dragon calls "The First String of Islands" as unlawful and aggressive, because it is. When you use your Navy and Coast Guard like forces to try and bully away claims of offshore islands by adjacent coastal states that clearly have the islands within their internationally recognized  Exclusive Economic Zones (in a few cases even territorial seas) most journalists clearly see that as aggression. Unfortunately most journalists and journalistic analysts don't read Chinese military journals. Our contacts do , both the English language versions and the Mandarin originals. The Chinese People's Liberation Army's Navy (PLAN) has been quite open about its intention to push the U.S. Navy out of the Western Pacific and confine it in Hawaii. It has been quite open about its territorial claim and intent to enforce them, legal or not, on its neighbors particularly Japan, the Philippines ,and Vietnam. At present their plan is seriously complicated by the strong U.S.naval presence in the Western Pacific and our  formal military alliances with Japan and the Philippines. 

 English speaking governments seem to have forgotten the historic and traditional relationship between a nation's merchant marine and navy. The United States has been foremost in neglecting the health of its merchant marine.The U.S. Congress has completely failed to craft a comprehensive U.S. maritime policy allowing nearly all of our foreign trade to be carried by foreign merchant marines. Led by people who should certainly know better like  Senator John McCain of Arizona the U.s. Congress has not only neglected our Blue Water merchant marine but periodically attacks our last merchant marine remnant the Jones Act fleet that carries commerce between and among the states. We don't think that McCain, a Naval Academy graduate does this out of ignorance, or some blind adherence to Republican ideas of unfettered capitalism. There is a history of both Republican and Democratic opposition to sane maritime policies by Arizona Senate and House members. Why would representatives from a state with no navigation be so interested in destroying the American Merchant Marine?  Simple, because there is no constituency of any size in Arizona to oppose  such a position there is no fear by representatives from such a place in taking up the banner of the lobbyist for such causes. So the lobbyist target delegations like Arizona, New Mexico, Nevada. and Wyoming. We can't say that the voting records of Nevada or Wyoming indicate any real long term success by these lobbyist. But the historical record of the last 30 years for both parties occupying Congressional and U.S. Senate seats from Arizona and New Mexico in our opinion indicates serious influence by anti U.S.Merchant Marine Interests lobbyist. We have urged the media in these states to investigate and "follow the money" but have drawn little interest. Following the money will not be easy because no one is going to find obvious organizations such as the Liberian Ship Registry , or foreign towboat owners directly lobbying the congress. Look for connections to grain elevators, especially foreign owned grain elevators and other port infrastructure, especially foreign owned. The actual campaign donors will probably be American Corporations with significant foreign control. In the case of attacks against the Jones Act look for mostly American Rail Roads, they hate the competition from the Jones Act protected towboat and barge industry. We do not claim that the campaign contributions are illegal, just that the influence exerted for these campaign contributors are not in the best security interests of the United States. 

 China suffered at the hands of aggressive British and American Merchant Marines who first dominated their foreign trade and later their domestic, even river trade. Once British and American ships were penetrating the Chinese waterborne domestic trade as much as 1,000 miles up the Chinese navigable rivers their navies weren't far behind on the theory that navies protect merchant marines. Once British and Chinese coast and river patrol boats dominated Chinese waters it wasn't long that the Chines merchants and governments were literally walled in and the Chinese people reduced to serfdom. This is what led to the Boxer Rebellion. If you want to develop a visceral understanding of that singular event we suggest viewing a tape or CD of the SAND PEBBLES starring Steve McQueen.

 What you see of life in China during the days leading up to the Boxer Rebellion in this remarkable film is not unlike what we could see in the U.S. if China is successful in recreating our "success" in the last decades of the 19th and early decades of the 20 century. 

 Is the Chinese campaign of "economic development" of the "String of Pearls" economically motivated, absolutely. All manner of conquest is. The Indian Naval Thinkers have it correct. The "String of Pearls" is a pearl handled dagger pointed straight at the heart of India. The dragon will use charm offenses, feints, false flags and a completely coordinated naval establishment consisting of what will soon be the largest and most powerful navy on earth, the world's largest coast guard, and a truly vast merchant fleet and even their fishing fleet to dominate Asia, Australia, and India. They are systematically dividing and conquering us even as they openly announce their goal of driving the U.S. Navy back to Pearl harbor and locking us in there. There is only thing that they fear, an awakening of the English speaking naval powers, Japan, and India and the formation of a naval alliance that could cause the Dragon to go bankrupt trying to match a coordinated and allied fleet. The "Middle Kingdom always tries to draw all states to itself in vassal status. It doesn't have real allies. We have to make the dragon choose to put all of its treasure into its naval establishment to the neglect of everything else or forgo its illegal and over ambitious maritime schemes of conquest.

 The ECONOMIST  can't see this because they are  typical classical capitalists, seeing capital fleeing any non advantageous market for any market offering more profit without any thought of national consequences, money with no flag. Governments can't afford to allow this in certain sectors. It is national suicide to allow all of a nation's foreign and domestic water borne trade to be carried by foreign nationals. It is folly to let foreign flag corporations run the majority of a nation's domestic waterways and harbor infrastructure. China understands this and trumps it, running a state sponsored and led form of Crony Capitalism. Meanwhile the West having gone overboard in previous years in over regulating to the point of strangulation its own capitalism, has moved to its own from form of crony capitalism where the capitalists lobbies intent on nothing but maximum profit are allowed to ignore the national interests and move off shore at will, while foreign corporations are no longer held at arms length until their impact on national security can be assessed. We are setting our selves up to play Pre-Boxer rebellion China to China's version of the British and Americans at the turn of the last century some time prior to the turn of this one. Wake up America and the English speaking world. China is a thug state, increasingly a mercantile, naval thug state. Now is not the time to be shrinking your navies or surrendering the management of your ports to the Dragon. There is no confusion or compartmentalization in the Dragon;s approach. It is full speed ahead toward their maritime global  of dominance starting with the "First string Of Islands", then the "String of Pearls":, and the ouster of the U.S. Pacific Fleet and its confinement at Hawaii. Namazu was right in his address  to the English speaking world. We either all hang together or the Dragon will surely hang us all separately. The more we review his analysis in the light of events and publications that appear after one of his pontifications the more we realize that he may deserve that cube farm of research assistants that he keeps asking for. 


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