Saturday, February 22, 2014


Ukraine Parliament Impeaches Yanukovich  latest news

Revisited 8/30/2018
Flag of the Ukraine (Photo Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 3.0 Unported license.UP9)

Editor's Note 8/30/2018. I was just culling the blog of obsolete posts when I came across this. While it is aged it is continuing food for thought. When this was written Russia hadn't yet annexed the Crimera and seized a signifigant portion of the Ukraine's fleet. Today with the perfect hindsite of history our prediction that Russia would seize parts of the Ukarine coast have certainly proven true. We were also correct in assuming that something maritime /navak, in character was afoot. What went byond our wildest imagination was the seizure of Ukraine naval vessels with immunity. Clearly the Bear did fear Obama. 

"(Reuters) - Ukraine's parliament voted on Saturday to remove President Viktor Yanukovich from office, hours after he abandoned his Kiev office to protesters and denounced what he described as a coup.
The apparent toppling of the pro-Russian leader looks likely to dramatically alter the future of the former Soviet republic of 46 million people, pulling it closer to Europe and away from Moscow's orbit.
It is also a stark reversal for Russian President Vladimir Putin's dream of recreating as much as possible of the Soviet Union in a new Eurasian Union, in which Moscow had counted on Yanukovich to deliver Ukraine as a central member." FULL STORY:

EDITORS NOTE:  This may not seem like a maritime story at the moment, but you are looking at a future maritime / naval story forming. As we explained yesterday Russia has a big maritime interest in the Ukraine's Black Sea ports. The Bear is not going to accept this turn away from Russia without playing a card that it hopes will assure its access to the Black Sea through what are now Ukrainian ports. Though the Bear has a small coast line of its own on the Black Sea it is never happy with its fair share. During the Soviet regime, the entire north shore was a virtual Soviet Lake. Will Russia be satisfied with simply being one of the Ukraine's port services customers? We don't think so. The Bear has already put down card number one in the next game. Russian officials have publicly stated their belief that the protesters don't represent the majority of the people of the Ukraine. Certainly even among the protesters there is public discussion of the fact that the most visible leaders in the present movement don't speak for everyone who has taken to the street. 
THE NEXT CARDS : The bear will build on that first card the "public proofs"of a lack of unity in the visible protest movement to further push its claim that "the protesters don't represent the majority". The second card to be played after that will be to point out that a portion of the Ukraine's populace are Russian speaking. That will get stretched into characterizing them as "Russian citizens left behind in the collapse of the Soviet Union." Next will come a reassertion of the undeniable fact that a small portion of the Ukraine's territory was carved out of Russia. This will be a month's long propaganda war to precede an an actual invasion into the former Russian territory and a bit beyond into the Russian speaking areas on the pretext of taking back "their territory" and "protecting " their "nationals". When the World protests after the Bear enters and conquers, the Bear can easily "compromise" by withdrawing from parts of the merely Russian speaking portion of the nation, but don't expect it to give up an inch of former Russian territory. All Russian speaking citizens of the Ukraine will be living under Russian military occupation for quite some time. Then the best they can hope for is integration into the thug state where they will always be a suspect and heavily policed region.

 IT'S UP TO THE PROTESTERS TO AVERT THIS FUTURE: You have achieved an effective vote of no confidence. Your legislative branch has fired the executive and called for new elections. Remaining in the streets and occupying government buildings now plays into the hands of the Bear who daily is describing what happened as a "coup" by a minority. The only antidote to the Bear's growing propaganda mill which so often precedes aggressive military action is a highly visible return to constitutional processes. Russian claims of a coup can't stand up to peaceful streets, and a legislatively appointed interim executive, with elections in the process of being organized. The interim government prior to the May elections has to be able to present to the world this entire episode as a "no confidence vote" by the people in the then serving executive that was necessitated by a constitutional oversight that does not provide for a ballot box equivalent. While the legislative branch works on organizing the May elections it should also be opening debate on constitutional changes that will provide for the removal of the chief executive and his appointees when public confidence is lost. 

 People of Ukraine it is time for visible government rule. You have spoken and won the no confidence argument. Continuing to mass in the streets and to occupy government buildings is not in your best interest, and works well only for the Bear.  The Bear is starting its propaganda machine to describe you as a "mob", worse, a minority mob usurping the democratic process. The West needs a visible government to deal with. Look at what happened in Georgia. ( It contains two de facto independent regions, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, which gained limited international recognition after the2008 Russo-Georgian War. Georgia and a major part of international community considers the regions to be part of Georgia's sovereign territory under Russian military occupation.-Wikipedia)  Russian forces simply took certain parts where they had some local support. The West was only able to come to the support of the central government and well secured central areas. The Russians still hold sway.

Russia is setting you up for a similar play. You can cut the Russian plan off at the knees by going home and preparing for the coming elections. Continuing street protests and occupying government buildings provides the Bear with "street theater" that they are only too happy to exploit. Your have taught all of the former Soviet Republics to "never take candy from the Bear". Time to remember that the Bear's aggression doesn't stop when you refuse his candy. The Bear's next weapon is the lie and the most effective of all lies is the half truth. Stop providing the Bear with the street theater it needs to construct half truths. Its best to walk away from Bears, not charge right into their mouths. If the West is to help, there has to be a government in charge. Your potential allies can't deal with a mob.

Johnas Presbyter, Editor


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