Sunday, February 23, 2014



SEE OUR PRIOR POST: "short sharp war with Japan"
  Japan's southern Islands targeted
                                                                                 File:PLAN sailors.jpg 
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                     PHOTOS: U.S. NAVY

The latest flag and general officer reassignments in the People's Liberation Army ( and Army's Navy or "PLAN") shows experienced front line troop and naval operational commanders being moved to the forefront. This tells us that the senior civilian dragon leadership is actually considering executing their war plan against Japan in the near future. We sure hope we are wrong, but we are wrong infrequently enough to be really worried. A Hong Kong based website Ta Kung Pao.and other Chinese and Taiwan based media are reporting that China is undergoing its first major restructure of flag and general officers in 11 years. Recently the PLA announced more than 20 new deputy leadership appointments across its ground, naval, and air forces. The regional media describes the new appointees as "experienced front line commanders". Leaders in China's military academies are being changed out as well. The overall assessment by the regional media is that the "experienced warriors are coming to the fore". Here are a few specifics:

Tian Zhong Deputy Commander of the Jinan Military Region and Commander of the North Sea Fleet has been promoted to Deputy Commander of the PLAN. Admiral Zhong's former post has been filled by Qiu Yanpeng who previously was Deputy Commander of the East China Fleet. These moves would be roughly comparable to promotions from vice admiral to admiral, and from rear admiral to vice admiral within English speaking navies with subsequent transfers to higher operational command.

 Political officers are important in any communist military system and there has been a lot of movement in these ranks as well. The senior political officers oversee programs that insure the loyalty of the rank and file and attempt to inspire them with zeal for whatever "cause" the central party authorities designate as the cause de jour. Among these commissars, for which there is no real equivalent in English speaking navies we see movement of the most accomplished in some cases from the academic setting at the service academies to the fleet and operational commands.This is a sign of planned future action requiring serious cheer leading and fanciful apologetics since the future action will involve no real defense of the homeland and will be discernible as at least dubious under international law to even the most propagandized sailors. .

Perhaps the most alarming transfers are among the Second Artillery, China's nuclear weapons force. Yu Daging, recently was slated for transfer from the political department of the Second Artillery Corps to deputy political commissar.  The vacancy he left at Second Artillery is to be filled by Tang Guoging moving up from political commissar of the Second Artillery Cops 52nd Base. To get human beings to actually fire nuclear weapons takes some serious motivational conditioning, our analysis, which involves more than just the sample transfers described, indicates that the best and brightest "brain washing" / conscience killing crew in the Communist Party  is moving toward the the nuclear forces. To us this indicates that the Dragon's known plan for a "short sharp war with Japan" is designed to be carried out under a nuclear umbrella. This coincides with the informal warning to Australia to not come to the aid of America and Japan under penalty of a nuclear strike.

 Clearly China grossly underestimates America's commitment to Japan and especially underestimates the emotional attachment of the American people to Japan. America has a big economic investment in its partnership with Japan, but also a big emotional investment in the emergence of Japan from an imperial power that once attacked Pearl Harbor to a real democracy, a stable democratic first rank economic power, and real friend. Many Americans have lived in Japan and have come to appreciate Japanese culture and the same is true of the Japanese. While the two cultures are very different it is not inaccurate to say that there is an actual cultural affinity between the two nations that has built up over the last fifty years.

 Japan refrained from building all forms of aggressive forces and concentrated on self defensive forces largely at American urging and the promise of an American counter offensive umbrella. The Chinese have seriously miscalculated if they believe that the American people will allow their government to fail to honor that commitment. They are also horribly mistaken if they believe that other regional powers like Australia or the Philippines will just sit quietly while China wrests by force maritime territories of Japan. These regional powers know that one of them is next on the Dragon's list.

 China displays an unimaginable cultural hubris and cultural myopia in their views of their neighbors. We urge you to read an  informal warning to Australia to not come to the aid of America and Japan under penalty of a nuclear strike. The language is incredible. The Dragon's colonel tells Australia to be a 'good little lamb" and not follow the "Wolf", his characterization of the United States. He threatens that if Australia comes to the aid of the United States and Japan they will be hit with a nuclear weapon strike, but promises if they behave like lambs the Dragon will protect them. What drivel! Has this turkey even met an AUSSIE???!  These people eat lambs and skin crocodiles !  Just because they want to sell China wool and mutton, and grain doesn't mean they want to bow down to the Emperor of the Middle Kingdom. We've met Aussie soldiers and sailors, lambs....we don't think so!  Australia is very independent and the characterization of the nation as "America's deputy sheriff in the region" is highly inaccurate. Australia and America cooperate but the Aussies are no lap dogs they pick and choose what they want to cooperate on. When the U.S. recently wanted to base troops there the answer was a simple and firm "NO". Yet America and Australia have more cultural affinity than America and Canada. All three nations draw from a common cultural core. But America and Australia also draw from a common attitudinal core. Australia is no pale shadow of the United States, its more like they were born twins and then America took steroids. We can't say that Australia will throw its kit in with its "cousins" at the outbreak of hostilities with Japan that pulls America into war with China. But anyone who characterizes the Aussies as a "lamb" doesn't get out much. Your average Aussie is no foreign policy wonk or academic egg head but they pretty well understand that if the Dragon breaks out and starts devouring its erstwhile trading partners, Australia will be the dessert on the menu.

 The following facts have always been clear to us.

  (1) China intends to stop at nothing including military attack in order to totally control the China Seas. 

  (2)  If China does resort to the military option they may well achieve some early success since America is in its usual state of psychological un-readiness due to a national news media focused on ratings, advertising sales, and the type of infotainment that nets large audiences that allow for high advertising rates.

  (3) Japan is alert and ready with the first response. Taking the first inch of Japanese territory won't be as easy as China supposes.

  (4) America will be hot on the heels of the Japanese Self Defense Forces, American Forces are in Japan at all times, an attack on Japan is an act of war against the United States. When it comes to whacking our friends (not just allies) like Japan, the Philippines, or Australia; China can't expect any real anti war movement of any real effect among the American people. American allies will come into the fight at their own chosen times but they will come

  (5) No one will attempt to invade the Chinese mainland. There will be a real attempt to limit the theater of war to the oceans and off shore islets under dispute by all sides. At first this works to the advantage of China, but then as Chinese casualties mount and the economy collapses, and no invasion threat appears, the the Chinese people will see the war as an ill conceived military adventure by their own blundering government.

  (6) The ruin of the Chinese economy will be almost immediate. They will have started a war with their best customers, and biggest debtor. The U.S. and others will cease debt payments to China with no harm to their credit. India and other manufacturing rivals will take up the slack after the allies experience a short term spike in the cost of many consumer items. The U.S., with the cooperation of open and clandestine allies will enforce a maritime embargo on China from far outside the realm of the China seas. The announcement by the U.S. of such a navy enforced embargo will send the insurance rates for ocean shipments to or from China through the roof. The sinking or internment of a single Chinese merchant ship will send the insurance rates even higher. In short the Chinese economy will be wrecked reducing China's growing middle class to penury in about three weeks. 

 (7) If China does exercise their nuclear option it won't be nearly as successful as they think due to the wide spread availability of the naval mounted, highly mobile Ageis anti missile systems.   

File:Aegis bmd mda.jpgOnce they launch even if , and especially if they score a hit; America then has the moral authority and tactical imperative to "let fly". The net result is China reduced to a glow in the dark parking lot. There are only two ways such a war can end; with China in economic ruin and the communist leaders hanging from lamp posts as a result of a revolt by their own people; or China ends up a glow in the dark parking lot. Either way China can expect no post war comprehensive rebuilding program from the United states, Japan, or the West generally. There will be some humanitarian aid but nothing like the post WWII  Marshal plan. Nobody has that kind of money any more.

What we now know that is new is:

(1) China has not responded to any calls for common sense and is still pushing the envelope drawing ever nearer to triggering a war by accident.

(2) China has no intention of actually moderating its outrageous claims or actions.

(3) China has a war plan to take by force the islands and exclusive ocean economic zones it covets.

(4) China is exercising that plan.
(5) China clearly plans to execute that plan if her neighbors don't capitulate soon.

(6) Vietnam is in a state of semi capitulation, this has encouraged Chinese aggression.

(7) The Philippines and Japan aren't going to capitulate. The United States isn't going to abandon them. 

(8) The Communist Party leadership is delusional and continues on the war path. 

The best that anyone can hope concerning the most recent reassignments of China's highest levels of military personnel is that these assignments reflect the party's recent thinking that emphasis needs to be placed on the leaders of front line forces due to recent tensions with Asian neighbors such as Japan and the Philippines over territorial disputes. But that is the view of certain Asian journalists hoping for the best. When we step back and look at the recent developments through un-tinted lenses we see a Chinese leadership that is out of touch with reality lock stepping towards a disastrous war. 

Johnas Presbyter.


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