THE BEAR IS LOOSE AND HE IS NOT GOING HOME, THE DRAGON IS NEXT
NAMAZU, GIANT JAPANESE CATFISH AND FORMER DEMIGOD NOW OUR LEAD ANALYST
Links checked 9/9/2015
UPDATE 10/7/2016 China still hasn't made the dramatic and definitive move, the slow undermining of reserve currencies continues, the "basket" of currencies makes slow progress. The corrective actions of the English speaking world suggested by the Great Catfish are still needed. Thankfully the Queen still live, and regrettably the idiot still occupies the White House and could be replaced by his female clone. UPDATE 9/9/2015 The Chinese decided not to drop the currency bomb on the date noted here and their continuing economic problems on this date continue to cause them to delay their planned destruction of the U.S. Dollar as the world's reserve currency, at least in any over night scenario. They continue to quietly advocate the abandonment of the dollar as the world's reserve currency with a "basket of currencies". The continuing weakness of the EU currencies and the EURO aren't helping their cause. The Bear is now solidly in charge of the Crimea. As usual the foresight of the Great Catfish proves virtually prophetic.
Greetings English Speaking Bipeds. Yesterday, Sunday March 2, 2014 the "New World Order" that you looked forward to after the Fall of the Berlin Wall collapsed as Russia put the Ukraine territory of the Crimea under its jack boot. President Obama will bluster, then consult with all of the EU leadership who don't trust him, and then threaten Russia with pulling their Domino Pizza advertising on the sides of their space launch vehicles if they don't give the Ukraine back their sovereign territory. If that doesn't scare the Bear into good behavior he may threaten their ability to buy Pepsi franchises. The EU will yammer about the situation, rattle something sounding vaguely like a saber all the while lobbying Obama to do something effective. Obama will still be standing there slack jawed on April 24, when China puts the final nail in the coffin for any peaceful "New World Order". On April 24, 2014 the Chinese Communist Party will be unveiling its new 5 year plan and it will include a major currency manipulation that will stun the economies of the United States and the West. In this they will actually be aided and abetted by Germany and France with or without their intending to do so. The Bear and the Dragon are on the march again but this time their thug like intentions are not wrapped in an ideological package. Each just wants to rule the world and each knows that's not possible until the United States which clearly has led but never rules the world is totally ruined and discredited. Both beasts are getting lots of help out of the present American office holders of both parties in Washington just now with both ruin and discredit.
Can you say "CONTAINMENT"? Remember that word from the so called "Cold War"? Well after Sunday March 2, 2014 that is now the name of the game and if you don't play you get contained. "Contained" as applied to a "defeated" U.S. and Western alliance means not so much invaded and occupied as an economic vassal of either the Bear or the Dragon, which ever orbit your nation falls under.
A "defeated" U.S. is one that has been bumped out of possession of the World's Reserve Currency and has enough economic distress to not be able to afford the world's finest military. When the Dollar is no longer the world's reserve currency it will be China that has it. Forget the talk that China has sold Germany and France about a "basket of currencies", the Chinese are moving to collect all the gold and will try to convince the world that their currency is backed fully by gold. It actually won't be, even if China had all of the gold in the world there isn't enough to back a true global reserve currency. The Chinese sell the idea that the U.S. dollar is nothing but a fiat currency, while they busily attack the actual backing of the dollar.
The dollar isn't exactly un-backed, it is the petro dollar. Most of the world's petroleum exporting nations for decades have required payment in U.S. dollars. At the end of World War II the U.S. was the world's leading petroleum exporting nation, so naturally people bought a lot of oil with dollars. Due to too many lunatics in public office the U.S. has gotten deep into debt, screwed up its foreign policies, and slowed its development into what it is going to be soon. That's right, the U.S. will shortly be the leading energy exporting nation of the world again. So even if Saudi Arabia and Iran and Iraq want their payments in Chinese currency or some basket of currency, the world will need U.S. currency to buy U.S. Natural Gas , oil, and refined oil products.
America already leads the world in refined products like gasoline, aviation fuel, and diesel fuel and lube oils, though presently some of the crude stocks are imported. The new reserves coming on line from fracked formations are larger than all of the known reserves in the Middle East. These on shore deposits are mostly on private land and even Obama and his alternative energy now regardless of social costs, cronies are not going to be able to stop these reserves from being developed and marketed. So China has a very narrow window of opportunity to knock down the dollar as the world's reserve currency and thus impose an over night jump in U.S. inflation of about 25% sending the U.S. economy into a tail spin. The reason the U.S. economy would take such a sudden and drastic hit if its dollar lost its position as the World's reserve currency is simply that there are enough dollars out there to support the world's oil demand rather than the dollar supply being limited to the value of the direct production of the U.S. economy. Germany and France both of which have been demanding their gold reserves back from the U.S. and joining with China calling for a basket of currencies to replace the U.S. dollar will each experience a lot of pain when the Dragon finally makes its real play. The Dragon doesn't intend to share the "basket" with any one certainly not fiat currencies. The day to watch is April 24, 2014.
This April 24 the Chinese Communist Party will publish its next Five Year Plan. If they announce that they are immediately moving to a gold standard and then challenge the United States to do likewise there will be a land rush to Chinese currency. People forget all too soon that what governments give they can also take away. Just because at a given moment in history China prints redeemable in gold on its currency doesn't mean that the promise is good next week or the week after. This is currency manipulation pure and simple. The status of the American dollar as the world's reserve currency wasn't the result of currency manipulation and the careful timing of a big surprise attack on the British pound. The appearance of the American dollar as the global reserve currency was the result of a more evolutionary process. If the world wants to change to something else it is in the best interest of all to do so with careful deliberation resulting in a well planned evolutionary process.
On the other hand China itself has some serious disincentives to destroying the dollar over night.
China holds a lot of dollars. One indication of her plan to destroy the dollar is the fact that the Dragon has been trading her dollars for real wealth at a break neck pace. China has been using her dollars to buy U.S. blue chip stocks, real estate, even Alaskan mined gold. If anything holds them back from a full fledged attack on April 24th it will be the fact that they are still holding so many dollars that they will suffer major financial reverses if the dollar inflates over night by 25%.
So we can't predict which way it is going to go on April 24th but that is an important date to watch. If the Dragon decides to pounce and the world buys their act they may shoot themselves in the foot. If they wait, on going U.S. austerity measures coupled with the new oil reserves coming on line could make the dollar and the U.S. economy generally unassailable again. So if China hesitates the opportunity may be lost for twenty to thirty years.
So we bring up China's plan to be a big time global currency manipulator only to point out that Chinese aggression in the China Seas is not the only aggression they are engaged in. The Chinese view of the world is ancient and simple. China is the "Middle Kingdom" and the rest of us are either vassals or future vassals. China is just as much a thug state as Russia presently walking over the Ukraine with their jack boots. Neither intends anyone in the world any good. But meanwhile the world's only already existing full service superpower that happens not to have imperial ambitions is in the hands of an idiot executive and legislature. What can the free world do to remain free?
If anyone has a chance to get the obviously needed containment movements going it has to be the English speaking nations. Despite pronouncements to the contrary by President Obama there is a special relationship between the American and the other English speaking nations. America is influenced by its "cousins" most especially Great Britain. Despite its present reluctance and ineptitude at taking the lead or even acknowledging that containment of both the Bear and the Dragon is an absolute necessity to maintain freedom in the world, the United States can be pushed into effective leadership by a united front of the rest of the English speaking world. It is necessary at this moment in history for the strongest and most closely coordinated alliance of the English speaking nations to form. Once that alliance emerges the friends of freedom will have a powerful nucleus around which to form a containment ring. It is necessary to contain China and Russia until such time that they learn as societies and governments that peaceful trading and respect for international law and other peoples territory leads to more prosperity than thug tactics. Unfortunately, we are betting that if April 24th passes without a Chinese orchestrated currency disaster too few people are galvanized by either China's island land grabs, or the Russian invasion of the Ukraine to realize how much the world order has changed. Who could rally the world before the next nation is devoured? Who does the English speaking world not regard as just another scum bag politician? Might I humbly suggest Queen Elizabeth.
Her father electrified the resistance of the English speaking world against the Nazi war machine with a single painfully constructed and delivered speech. Now the world needs another such speech by someone who can command a world audience and global respect. The Russians and the Chinese must understand that thug like behavior is going to result in the stunting of their growth. These two already know that their seeming alliance is one of convenience against the United States and as soon as the U.S. is rendered powerless they will turn on each other with terrible results for the rest of us. Now is the moment and the person best able to stand and deliver is the Queen. Her father did it as a new and reluctant king with a life long speech impediment. She is a long serving and highly respected monarch quite capable of doing this. If she, like us, believes the world changed last Sunday, she must speak out to her Nation, the Common Wealth and the World as soon as possible. She will command the World stage and she could convince the free world to come together on thug containment while it can still be done with relatively little blood shed.
God Save The Queen , indeed perhaps her necessity at this moment explains her longevity and retention of her full mental capacity to this day. Perhaps he already did save the Queen, and for just this moment in time. The English speaking world needs leadership, it won't be coming from the White House.
RUSSIAN MILITARY READING SHELF