Monday, March 31, 2014


China to Exclude Japan from International Fleet Review in Qingdao

"The Chinese navy has not extended an invitation to Japan's Maritime Self-Defense Force to take part in an international fleet review China will host late next month, a senior Japanese Defense Ministry official said Sunday." (Source:  

NOTE FROM NAMAZU: ( Our Senior maritime Analyst and former Japanese Giant Catfish demigod)
 Hello people of Malaysia, Indonesia, Brunei, the Philippines, and Vietnam. Hello English speaking bipeds everywhere, but especially in Australia, New Zealand, and America. I'd like to have a few words with you about this latest naval misbehavior by the Dragon related to its "naval review" scheduled for Qingdao next months. Here they are: NO MATTER WHAT YOUR PRESENT PLANS DON'T GO!  A naval review by a strong regional power should be an opportunity for all navies in the area to get together to meet and greet the people of the host nation, and for the sailors and officers to interact with each other. It is the social side of joint naval exercises in piracy suppression, search and rescue , and civil relief. China is turning it into a power demonstration. China's so called "Coast Guard" is larger than all of the regional navies plus the U.S. Pacific fleet combined though lightly armed. Their navy is also larger than all naval forces of the Pacific combined but lacks certain types of ships and skills that would make it a real threat right now beyond the China seas. But the intent of the Middle Kingdom is to rule the world, not as military occupier but as vassal states cowed by the Middle Kingdom's economic and military might. By excluding Japan, China is using the naval review not to build regional cooperation for security and development but to bully Japan. They are turning the message of the review to "Look Japan, the regional navies come at our bidding, none will assist you, give us the islands we demand now". 

 The dragon is arrogant and delusional. Even with a combined navy and coast guard of over 1800 ships it is not ready to defeat either the Japanese Maritime Self Defense Force, or the U.S. Pacific Fleet and certainly not the combined arms of Japan, the U.S. and most of the other regional powers they threaten and bully. The allied forces don't need to enter the China seas to take on this massive but cumbersome fleet. They can wait in the Pacific at the relatively narrow entrances to the China seas, and in the straits to the south, and pick off the dragon ships that attempt to exit. With the allies' over the horizon weapons and
remote targeting capabilities, they can fire into the China Seas like shooting fish in a barrel if the Chinese Navy masses, or even if it doesn't mass. The U.S. is capable of both interdicting China's ocean commerce far from the China Seas and remotely mining her ports and ending her commerce. China has captive areas like Tibet that it considers interior, the U.S. is capable of inciting and aiding rebellion in these areas. All nations engulfed in such a war would be justified in refuting all debts to China. In short by the time the sound of China's first shot faded her economy would be in tatters. There will be no invasion of the Chinese mainland, no demand for unconditional surrender, the populace will be left to watch their economic dreams ruined and to face eventual starvation unless they do something. With no invading armies to rally against, there will be only one group to blame....the Chinese Communist party and government. 

 The dreams of a restoration of a Middle Kingdom have to be modernized with China as a prosperous state that is not viewed as a threat by its neighbors or as an unreliable partner by the other major powers, an adherent to international law. A territorial expanding China taking lands, ocean economic zones, and islands owned, administered , or occupied by others while already holding some of its own population and areas under central rule by force of arms is a threat. Being a three thousand year old former regional demigod I remember how the old Middle Kingdom worked. This fleet review is classic old school Middle Kingdom. All of the surrounding potential and actual vassal states are invited to the big party so that they may leave impressed. In the instant case who else has a fleet of naval and coast guard vessels numbering over 1800 to draw from? More over China's fleet is mostly engaged in the immediate region busy bullying her neighbors, they can always take a break from that. The would be participants including Japan, had they been invited, can only send what they can spare from on going commitments and patrols. Since they really don't know how to operate it yet, the Dragon can easily spare its one aircraft carrier and escort flotilla for the big show. This is not a true naval review of cooperative and friendly navies. This is a blatant attempt by the Dragon to intimidate Japan by exclusion and all of the invitees by showmanship. My advice if you ever hope to contain the Dragon until it can morph into a wise and benign giant catfish is DON'T GO! My other advice is this; if China is so bold as to act like this when they are still a technologically inferior force what will they be like when they can really back their play?  Everybody needs to be engaged in a big naval build up in the Pacific. India would be wise to join an alliance formally now.


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